CN — LARRY ROMANOFF: 揭穿埃隆·马斯克——第20部分 — 擎天柱，失败的骗局 –Debunking Elon Musk–Part 20 — Optimus, the Failed Fraud

 

 

揭穿埃隆·马斯克——第20部分 — Debunking Elon Musk–Part 20

擎天柱，失败的骗局 — Optimus, the Failed Fraud

By Larry Romanoff

作者：拉里·罗曼诺夫

翻译：Pearl

 

 

 

 

目录 — Contents

 

欺诈、幻想与缺陷 — Frauds, Fantasies, and Flaws

首先，马斯克/Optimus骗局 — First, the Musk/Optimus Frauds

第二，马斯克/奥普图斯幻想 — Second, the Musk/Optimus Fantasies

第三，马斯克/奥普图斯缺陷 — Third, the Musk/Optimus Flaws

擎天柱（Optimus）的（彻底）失败 — The Unadmitted (Total) Failure of Optimus

供应链挑战 — Supply Chain Challenges

The Espionage Factor — 间谍因素

埃隆·马斯克的性爱机器人 — Elon Musk’s Sexbot

结论 — Conclusion

 

 

首先，马斯克/Optimus骗局 — First, the Musk/Optimus Frauds

 

Elon Musk has a long pattern of questionable media releases. There are many documented instances where he has promoted things or ideas that were later questioned for validity. Musk has often posted videos of Optimus, where its actions were presented as autonomous but were later “clarified” to have been performed in a staged setting and were remotely operated. Many were also revealed to have been heavily edited. This pattern suggests a need for caution with any content originating from Musk or Tesla sources. It’s a shame to have to say this, but with anything involving Elon Musk or his activities, it is always necessary to check the source and corroborate whatever is stated or claimed. Especially with items on social media, whenever you encounter anything surprising or admirable, it’s crucial to check the origin, to ask who published it. If the video was created and/or published by either Elon Musk or Tesla, the results should be considered as almost certainly fake, and not credible.

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）长期以来一直有发布可疑媒体消息的倾向。有许多有记录的实例表明，他曾推广过后来被质疑有效性的事物或观点。马斯克经常发布Optimus的视频，视频中的行为被描述为自主行为，但后来被“澄清”为是在舞台设置下进行的，并且是远程操作的。许多视频还被揭露出经过了大量编辑。这种模式表明，对于来自马斯克或特斯拉消息来源的任何内容，都需要保持谨慎。很遗憾不得不说，对于任何涉及埃隆·马斯克或其活动的内容，总是有必要核实消息来源，并对所述或所声称的内容进行佐证。尤其是社交媒体上的内容，每当你遇到任何令人惊讶或令人钦佩的内容时，检查其来源、询问是谁发布的至关重要。如果视频是由埃隆·马斯克或特斯拉创作和/或发布的，那么结果几乎可以肯定为虚假，不可信。

 

It is often only through courtroom testimony in the many lawsuits against Tesla, that the truth emerges about Musk’s fraudulent statements and videos. One example is a suit filed by an ex-Apple engineer against Tesla in 2018, regarding Tesla’s FSD. Ashok Elluswamy, the director of Tesla’s autonomous driving software, testified in court that a video produced to demonstrate the efficiency and reliability of Tesla’s FSD, was entirely false and fabricated. [1] He said it was not intended to demonstrate functions that the system possessed, only to describe what might be possible one day. But his claim itself was outrageously false.

在针对特斯拉的众多诉讼中，往往只有通过法庭证词，马斯克欺诈性陈述和视频的真相才会浮出水面。一个例子是2018年一位前苹果工程师就特斯拉的全自动驾驶系统（FSD）对特斯拉提起的诉讼。特斯拉自动驾驶软件主管阿肖克·埃鲁斯瓦米在法庭上作证称，为展示特斯拉FSD的效率和可靠性而制作的一段视频完全是虚假和捏造的。[1]他表示，该视频并非旨在展示系统所具备的功能，而只是描述未来可能实现的功能。但他的说法本身就极其荒谬。

 

According to a report by Reuters on January 17, 2025, Elluswami said Elon Musk ordered Tesla’s autonomous driving team to design and record a “system capability demonstration”. “To produce this video, 3D maps were used on the predetermined route from a house in Menlo Park, California to Tesla’s then headquarters. During the trial run, the drivers took over the control. When attempting to show that the Model X could park itself without a driver, the test vehicle crashed into the fence of Tesla’s parking lot.” When Tesla released this video, Musk said on Twitter, “Tesla drove itself (with no human intervention) through city streets to the highway, then to the streets again, and finally found a parking spot.” In the video, there is a sentence: “The person sitting in the driver’s seat was there only for legal reasons. He did nothing. The car was driving by itself.” The video is still available on the Tesla website and has been promoted by Elon Musk as evidence of the reliability of the “Tesla Autopilot”. The contents are entirely false.

根据路透社2025年1月17日的一篇报道，埃卢斯瓦米（Elluswami）表示，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）曾命令特斯拉自动驾驶团队设计并录制一段“系统能力演示”视频。“为了制作这段视频，在从加利福尼亚州门洛帕克的一所房子到特斯拉当时的总部的预定路线上使用了3D地图。在试运行期间，驾驶员接管了控制。在试图展示Model X可以在没有驾驶员的情况下自动泊车时，测试车辆撞上了特斯拉停车场的围栏。”特斯拉发布这段视频时，马斯克在推特上写道：“特斯拉（在无人干预的情况下）自行驾驶穿越城市街道至高速公路，然后又回到街道，最终找到了一个停车位。”视频中有一句话：“坐在驾驶座上的人只是为了法律原因而存在。他什么也没做。车是自动驾驶的。”该视频目前仍可在特斯拉网站上观看，并被埃隆·马斯克宣传为“特斯拉自动驾驶”可靠性的证据。但内容完全是虚假的。

 

This pattern is universal with Elon Musk and is important for the context of this article on Optimus. Nearly all of Musk’s claims about the current or future capabilities of Optimus are fabricated, with no possibility of fruition, claims that are not only provably false, but ridiculous, and even outrageous. Among the literally dozens of false claims Musk has made, the many Optimus robots walking around at his Cybercab event were later discovered to have been remote controlled. And that means the only thing Musk had actually accomplished was making a robot that didn’t fall over while walking. [2]

这一模式在埃隆·马斯克身上屡见不鲜，对于本文关于Optimus的背景而言至关重要。马斯克关于Optimus当前或未来能力的几乎所有说法都是编造的，不可能实现，这些说法不仅被证明是错误的，而且荒谬至极，甚至令人愤慨。在马斯克所做的数十项虚假声明中，他在Cybercab活动上展示的许多Optimus机器人后来被发现是远程控制的。这意味着马斯克真正实现的唯一一件事就是制造了一个行走时不会摔倒的机器人。 [2]

 

This pattern of constant misrepresentation has led to broader criticism from industry experts, who view Musk’s vision for Optimus as disconnected from the immense technical challenges of robotics. Rodney Brooks, a co-founder of iRobot (creator of the Roomba) and an MIT professor emeritus of robotics, labeled Musk’s entire Optimus project “pure fantasy thinking”. [3] And indeed Elon Musk has a long history of foolish overpromising, making ambitious technological promises with deadlines that are repeatedly missed. Musk’s long list of tech failures includes promising that “full self-driving” Tesla vehicles were only “one year away” every year since 2014, as thousands of Teslas were crashing while on Autopilot.

这种不断歪曲事实的模式已经引起了行业专家的广泛批评，他们认为马斯克对Optimus的愿景与机器人技术所面临的巨大技术挑战相脱节。iRobot（Roomba的创造者）的联合创始人、麻省理工学院机器人技术荣誉退休教授罗德尼·布鲁克斯将马斯克的整个Optimus项目称为“纯粹的幻想思维”。[3]事实上，埃隆·马斯克长期以来一直存在愚蠢的过度承诺问题，他多次做出雄心勃勃的技术承诺，但承诺的最后期限却一再被错过。马斯克在技术上的失败清单很长，包括自2014年以来，他每年都承诺“一年后”特斯拉汽车就能实现“完全自动驾驶”，而与此同时，成千上万辆特斯拉汽车在自动驾驶模式下发生了碰撞。

 

On November 5, 2025, China handed the world another bombshell with the unveiling of X-Peng’s IRON humanoid robot. [4] [5] A video of the demonstration showed IRON walking with a relaxed and smooth, human-like rhythm. The “female” robot’s fluid, smooth, and human-like “catwalk” was so convincing that it sparked widespread discussion and skepticism, with many people both inside and outside of China convinced it was a human in a robot suit. [6] The suspicion was so widespread that the company publicly cut open the robot’s leg to prove it was not a human in a suit. [7] [8]

2025年11月5日，中国向世界抛出了另一颗重磅炸弹，推出了小鹏的IRON人形机器人。[4][5]一段演示视频显示，IRON以一种轻松流畅、类似人类的节奏行走。“女性”机器人流畅、自然、类似人类的“走秀”极具说服力，引发了广泛的讨论和质疑，许多国内外人士都认为这是穿着机器人套装的人类。[6]由于质疑声四起，该公司公开剖开机器人的腿部，以证明它并非穿着套装的人类。 [7] [8]

 

The world had good reason to be skeptical at IRON’s catwalk, given the misleading stunts Elon Musk has perpetrated in his public demonstrations of Optimus. During Tesla’s AI Day in August 2021, Musk introduced the Optimus-to-be as the prototype of the humanoid robot he was creating. However, the “prototype” was not a functional robot, but a human performer, a dancer dressed in a white and black spandex bodysuit who came on stage and performed a simple dance. [9] That fraud attracted widespread criticism, in spite of Musk’s attempts at justification for misleading everyone. The Verge described the event as a “joke” and a “stunt”. [10] A UK robotics professor, Carl Berry, called it “horse shit”. The presentation was widely seen as a publicity move to generate headlines and divert attention from other negative news about Tesla at the time.

鉴于埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在公开演示Optimus时所展现的误导性噱头，全世界都有充分的理由对IRON的走秀持怀疑态度。在2021年8月特斯拉的人工智能日上，马斯克介绍了他正在研发的类人机器人原型Optimus。然而，这个“原型”并非功能性机器人，而是一名人类表演者，一名穿着黑白紧身衣的舞者，他上台表演了一段简单的舞蹈。[9]尽管马斯克试图为误导所有人辩解，但这一骗局还是引起了广泛的批评。The Verge将此次活动描述为“笑话”和“噱头”。[10]英国机器人学教授卡尔·贝里（Carl Berry）称其为“胡说八道”。此次展示被普遍视为一种宣传手段，目的是制造头条新闻，转移人们对当时有关特斯拉的其他负面新闻的注意力。

 

The skepticism from 2021 extended to Tesla’s later demonstrations of Optimus. At the “We, Robot” event in October 2024, Optimus robots were shown performing complex tasks like serving drinks and conversing with people. However, reports quickly emerged that Tesla employees were operating remote control units, and the robots were not operating on their own AI. [11] [12] Bloomberg News reported that the robots were actually remotely controlled by humans, information that was later confirmed by a video circulating on Twitter (X). [13] The fact that the machines were revealed to be remotely controlled even as they served drinks and danced, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in anything Musk says. Not only this, but the videos of Optimus that are so often posted on Twitter (X) and YouTube, are either AI-generated, or heavily edited to delete the portions where Optimus displays all its malfunctions. Many observers have pointed out that Tesla’s promotional videos of Optimus usually consist of very short, heavily-edited clips that contain only positive segments. The lack of continuous, unbroken footage of a complete task indicates the robot is not performing as well as the videos imply. None are reliable indicators of anything.

2021年的质疑声一直延续到特斯拉后来展示Optimus机器人时。在2024年10月的“We, Robot”活动上，展示了Optimus机器人执行复杂任务，如端饮料和与人交谈。然而，很快有报道称，特斯拉员工正在操作远程控制装置，而机器人并非依靠自身的人工智能（AI）运行。[11][12]彭博社报道称，这些机器人实际上是由人类远程控制的，这一信息后来在推特上流传的一段视频中得到了证实（X）。[13]尽管机器人在端饮料和跳舞时被揭露为远程控制，但这并不能让人对马斯克所说的任何话产生信心。不仅如此，推特（X）和YouTube上经常发布的Optimus视频要么是AI生成的，要么是经过大量编辑，删除了Optimus展示其所有故障的部分。许多观察者指出，特斯拉关于Optimus的宣传视频通常由非常短且经过大量编辑的片段组成，其中只包含积极的片段。缺乏连续、完整的任务执行镜头表明，机器人的表现并不像视频所暗示的那样好。这些视频都不能可靠地反映任何情况。

 

Musk once posted a video of an Optimus robot folding a shirt, much later admitting Optimus was not autonomous in that video. It was just another staged video, like the 2016 FSD video. One observer wrote, “FSD was being massively overhyped via staged videos for years, and Tesla is doing the same with Optimus.” Another wrote, “Elon is doing the same thing with Optimus that he did with FSD – put out staged videos to hype something that likely won’t be real for many years to come.”[14]

马斯克曾发布了一段Optimus机器人叠衬衫的视频，但后来他承认，在那段视频中，Optimus并非自主完成叠衣，而只是像2016年的FSD视频一样，又是一段精心编排的视频。一位观察者写道：“多年来，FSD一直通过精心编排的视频被大肆炒作，而特斯拉现在对Optimus也做了同样的事。”另一位写道：“埃隆对Optimus所做的事，与他对FSD所做的一样——发布精心编排的视频来炒作一些在未来许多年都不太可能实现的东西。” [14]

 

Many robotics experts have noted that Musk’s robot demonstrations are “always the best fabrication (misrepresentation) they can show you”. They claim that when Optimus is displayed as performing kung fu or appearing to do something smart, “it’s just reacting to the environment with no cognition behind it.” [15] In other words, there is action programming, but no “AI” in any useful sense, and the robot is not “thinking” about what it is doing. A gasoline-powered auto engine does not “think” about its power strokes; it is merely a senseless machine operating as it was built to operate. Musk’s Optimus is essentially the same; an AI robot without the AI.

许多机器人专家指出，马斯克的机器人演示“总是他们能展示给你的最好的捏造（歪曲）”。他们声称，当Optimus被展示为在表演功夫或看似在做出一些聪明的事情时，“它只是在没有认知的情况下对环境做出反应。”[15]换言之，虽然有动作编程，但并没有任何意义上的“人工智能”，机器人并没有“思考”自己在做什么。汽油驱动的汽车引擎并不会“思考”它的动力冲程；它仅仅是一台没有情感的机器，按照其设计运行。马斯克的Optimus本质上也是如此；一个没有人工智能的人工智能机器人。

 

In one particular case, reporters were invited to “meet” Optimus at the factory, with one reporter recording the experience. As a demonstration of “Optimus the Tour Guide”, reporters were specifically instructed to ask the robot to conduct them to a particular room. In repeated attempts, Optimus was asked if it knew the location of the room in question. Optimus then had a creepy delay of five or six seconds after which it answered in the affirmative. Then, the reporter asked, “Will you take me there?” Another silent pause of five or six seconds before Optimus replied, “Of course”. But then the robot simply stood in place, making no move to guide the reporter anywhere. This sequence was repeated several times with the same result. At that point, Elon Musk inserted his face into the video and said that Optimus was shy about going to “other spaces”. But that had nothing to do with being shy nor with other spaces. It was simply incompetent programming. Again, an AI robot without the AI.

在一个特定案例中，记者受邀到工厂“会见”Optimus，并由一名记者记录这一体验。作为“Optimus导游”的演示，记者被特别指示要求机器人带领他们前往某个特定房间。在多次尝试中，记者询问Optimus是否知道所问房间的位置。Optimus先是出现了五六秒的诡异延迟，然后给出了肯定的回答。接着，记者问：“你能带我去那里吗？”又是五六秒的沉默后，Optimus回答道：“当然可以”。但随后，机器人只是站在原地，没有采取任何行动引导记者前往任何地方。这一系列动作重复了几次，结果都一样。这时，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）出现在视频中，说Optimus害羞去“其他地方”。但这与害羞或其他地方无关，只是因为编程能力不足。再一次，一个没有人工智能（AI）的AI机器人。

 

Image source: Daily Musk

图片来源：Daily Musk

 

Another Musk/Optimus fraud was the widely-promoted video of Optimus handing out bottles of water at an event. [16] It is almost painful to watch. The robot was slow, hesitant, and clumsy. It appeared only barely able to function in an environment where it had not been pre-programmed. Still, Musk had this video widely circulated as evidence of Optimus’ ability to interact autonomously in social situations. But there were many other videos of the same event that weren’t circulated. [17] In these, Optimus knocked over all the water bottles and then collapsed on the floor. In these videos, the robot appears suddenly confused and frustrated before collapsing. Elon Musk’s quick and “official” explanation was that Optimus suffered from “work overload”.

另一则马斯克/Optimus的骗局是Optimus在一场活动中分发瓶装水的视频，该视频被大肆宣传。[16]观看时几乎令人感到痛苦。这个机器人动作迟缓、犹豫不决且笨拙。在未经预先编程的环境中，它似乎只能勉强运作。尽管如此，马斯克还是让这段视频广泛流传，作为Optimus在社交场合能够自主互动的证据。但同一事件的其他许多视频却未被流传。[17]在这些视频中，Optimus打翻了所有的水瓶，然后瘫倒在地。在这些视频中，机器人在倒地前突然显得困惑和沮丧。埃隆·马斯克的快速且“官方”的解释是，Optimus“工作超负荷”。

 

However, observers at the scene revealed that Optimus was not acting autonomously but was being controlled by an operator. They pointed out that Optimus’ last act after knocking over the water bottles and falling to the floor, was the exact motion of a teleoperator removing his headset. [18] The observers confirmed that an Indian engineer was controlling Optimus in the distribution of the water bottles, became frustrated, knocked over the bottles, removed his headset, and quit. Optimus duplicated these final acts but then could not function without the external control, and thus lost control of its limbs and collapsed. Musk had insisted previously that Optimus was not being remotely controlled, but this was just one more fraudulent exhibition of so many, of Optimus’ “abilities”.

然而，现场观察者透露，Optimus并非自主行动，而是受到操作员的控制。他们指出，Optimus在撞倒水瓶并跌倒在地后的最后动作，正是遥控操作员摘下头戴设备的动作。[18]观察者证实，一名印度工程师在分发水瓶的过程中控制着Optimus，他感到沮丧，撞倒了水瓶，摘下头戴设备，然后退出。Optimus重复了这些最后动作，但在没有外部控制的情况下无法运行，因此失去了对四肢的控制并倒下。马斯克此前曾坚称Optimus并未被远程控制，但这只是Optimus众多“能力”中又一次欺诈性的展示。

 

第二，马斯克/奥普图斯幻想 — Second, the Musk/Optimus Fantasies

 

 

Many of Musk’s claims about the current or future capabilities of Optimus are fabricated, with no possibility of fruition, claims that are not only provably false, but ridiculous, and even outrageous. There will never be “billions” of Optimus robots with “one in every home”. These are all childish fantasies.

马斯克关于Optimus当前或未来能力的许多说法都是编造的，不可能实现，这些说法不仅明显错误，而且荒谬至极，甚至令人愤慨。Optimus机器人永远不会“数以亿计”，“每个家庭都有一个”。这些都是幼稚的幻想。

 

Musk boasts that Optimus will be a “massive hit” with consumers, calling Optimus “potentially the biggest product ever in the history of the world”. At Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting on November 7, 2025, Musk said that the humanoid robot Optimus will be “the largest product in history, with an expected market size of billions of units”, and that Optimus could one day account for about 80% of Tesla’s stock market value. [19] In late 2025, Musk said “There is a market for about 20 billion robots in the world”, and that his robots would earn “$30 trillion in annual revenue”. [20] Musk said in 2025 “We expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history, to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible”. [21] All of these “predictions” are so implausible as to deserve only public ridicule.

马斯克夸口说，Optimus将成为消费者的“巨大热门”，称Optimus“可能是世界历史上最大的产品”。在2025年11月7日的特斯拉年度股东大会上，马斯克表示，人形机器人Optimus将成为“历史上最大的产品，预计市场规模将达到数十亿台”，并且Optimus有朝一日可能占特斯拉股票市值的约80%。[19]2025年底，马斯克表示“全球机器人市场约有200亿台”，而他的机器人将“每年创造30万亿美元的收入”。[20]马斯克在2025年表示“我们预计Optimus的扩张速度将超过历史上任何产品，尽快达到每年数百万台”。[21]所有这些“预测”都如此难以置信，只配得到公众的嘲笑。

 

As late as the middle of 2025, Musk was calling Optimus a “killer product” that would add $25 trillion in value to Tesla’s stock – more than all 10 of the world’s most valuable companies combined. “This is going to be bigger than the car.” According to Musk, Optimus would revolutionise human behavior, and everyone in the world would own at least one of them. According to Fortune Magazine, Optimus wasn’t just a potential revenue stream; it was the future of Tesla.[22] 

直到2025年中期，马斯克还称Optimus为“杀手级产品”，将为特斯拉的股票增加25万亿美元的价值——超过全球10大最有价值公司的总价值。“这将比汽车更伟大。”马斯克表示，Optimus将彻底改变人类行为，世界上每个人至少会拥有一台Optimus。据《财富》杂志报道，Optimus不仅仅是一个潜在的收入来源；它是特斯拉的未来。 [22]

 

移动目标 — Moving Targets

 

According to Musk’s plan, Tesla will produce 50,000 Optimus units in 2026 and in 2027 Optimus will fly to Mars on SpaceX’s Starship.

根据马斯克的计划，特斯拉将在2026年生产5万台Optimus，2027年，Optimus将搭载SpaceX的星际飞船飞往火星。

 

Musk claims that in 2026 he will build a robot production line capable of producing 1 million Optimus robots per year, with medium-term production at 10 million units, and long-term production at 50 million to 100 million units annually. [23] The fairytale fantasy of these claims should be obvious. Musk also claims that Optimus will be 5 times more productive than humans when deployed, but this is nonsense. Tesla has admitted internally that Optimus is less than half as efficient as a human in any tasks so far assigned to it.

马斯克声称，到2026年，他将建成一条机器人生产线，每年能够生产100万台Optimus机器人，中期产量将达到1000万台，长期产量将达到每年5000万至1亿台。[23]这些声称显然只是童话般的幻想。马斯克还声称，Optimus投入使用后的生产效率将是人类的5倍，但这纯属无稽之谈。特斯拉内部承认，到目前为止，在分配给Optimus的任何任务中，其效率还不到人类的一半。

 

According to Musk’s plan, Tesla will produce 50,000 Optimus units in 2026 and in 2027 Optimus will fly to Mars on SpaceX’s Starship. Further, that by 2029, the annual production of Optimus will exceed 500,000 units. This is already a scaled-down version, as Musk was originally predicting an annual production capacity of Optimus to 1 million units by 2027. This may not be a serious business plan. [24]

根据马斯克的计划，特斯拉将在2026年生产5万台Optimus，2027年，Optimus将搭载SpaceX的星际飞船飞往火星。此外，到2029年，Optimus的年产量将超过50万台。这已经是一个缩减版的计划，因为马斯克最初预测到2027年，Optimus的年产能将达到100万台。这可能并不是一个严肃的商业计划。 [24]

 

Readers may have learned of the severe and continuing problems with Musk’s Optimus up to late 2025, including the fact that production was terminated altogether due to multiple failings. Yet Musk ignores all this and inexplicably claims that within a few months he will build a factory to produce one million a year. One million of what? Optimus appears to be a very long way from a final finished product that actually functions as advertised, and is in no condition to be put into production. All these claims are pure groundless fantasy, marketing hype meant to boost Tesla’s stock price, but totally disconnected from reality. It is difficult to separate the reality of the flawed Optimus today, from Musk’s assurance that he is building a factory with the capacity to produce one million Optimus robots each year. And that this factory will supposedly begin operation in Q1 of 2026 (3 months from the time of writing).

读者可能已经了解到，直到2025年底，马斯克的Optimus机器人一直存在严重且持续的问题，包括因多次失败而导致生产完全终止。然而，马斯克却无视这一切，令人费解地声称，几个月内他将建造一座年产100万台的工厂。100万什么？Optimus距离成为真正能按宣传功能运行的最终成品似乎还有很长的路要走，根本不具备投入生产的条件。所有这些说法都是毫无根据的幻想，是旨在推高特斯拉股价的营销炒作，但与现实完全脱节。如今，很难将有缺陷的Optimus的现实与马斯克声称他正在建造一座年产100万台Optimus机器人的工厂的保证区分开来。而且，这座工厂据称将于2026年第一季度（即本文撰写之时起三个月后）开始运营。

 

There is definitely a surreal disconnect between Elon Musk’s future promises and present-day engineering reality. Musk is announcing he will have a “mass-production-ready” Optimus in January, 2026 and a factory with a capacity of one million units annually, while the company simultaneously ceased all Optimus component procurement, terminated all Optimus production, and ceased the assembly of the few completed robots. To jump from a full production halt to mass production in a matter of months would be an unprecedented engineering feat. But even this is assuming there is a viable product to be produced, and the only existing “inventory” is a warehouse of partially-assembled torsos with defective (and handless) parts.

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）对未来的承诺与当今的工程现实之间显然存在着一种荒诞的脱节。马斯克宣布，到2026年1月，他将拥有一个“可批量生产”的Optimus机器人，以及一个年产能为100万台的工厂，而与此同时，该公司却停止了所有Optimus部件的采购，终止了所有Optimus的生产，并停止了少数已完工机器人的组装。在短短几个月内从全面停产跃升至批量生产，这将是一项前所未有的工程壮举。但即便如此，前提也是要有一个可行的产品可供生产，而目前仅有的“库存”只是一堆部分组装好的躯干，且零件有缺陷（且没有手）。

 

Perhaps the most surreal of Elon Musk’s “predictions” is not that he will begin production of the Optimus V3 version in 2026, but that it will be entirely “humanoid” and will “look like a person wearing a robot costume”. This would require, at a minimum, not only solving all the design and engineering problems, but executing a total redesign of Optimus, scrapping the current version and creating a duplicate of Chinese X-Peng’s IRON. To accomplish all this in a matter of only a few months, does not seem too plausible, especially considering X-Peng worked for 7 years to perfect IRON.

或许，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）最离奇的“预测”并非他将在2026年开始生产Optimus V3版本，而是该版本将完全“人形化”，并且“看起来就像一个穿着机器人服装的人”。这至少需要不仅解决所有的设计和工程问题，还需要对Optimus进行全面重新设计，废弃当前版本，并复制中国小鹏的IRON。要在短短几个月内完成所有这些工作，似乎不太可能，尤其是考虑到小鹏为完善IRON已经工作了7年。

 

In a subsequent earnings call, Elon Musk said, “Tesla and our future strategy are at a critical turning point as we bring artificial intelligence into the real world.” I think it’s important to emphasize that Tesla is really a leader in real-world AI, and no one can do what we can in real-world AI.” [25] But this is complete nonsense. Most, and probably all, other AI firms like Google, Open AI, and DeepSeek are far ahead of Elon Musk’s Grok. I would add here that Elon Musk in several recent promoted videos, claims that Tesla is the “world leader” in “useful, general AI”. But that is far from true. Nothing that Elon Musk has touched is a “world leader” in AI. Nothing. It is astonishing that this ridiculous self-praise continues to earn headlines while much of the reality of the AI world is simply ignored.

在随后的电话财报会议上，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）表示：“特斯拉和我们的未来战略正处于一个关键的转折点，因为我们正在将人工智能带入现实世界。”我认为，重要的是要强调特斯拉在现实世界的人工智能领域确实是领导者，没有人能在这一领域做到我们所能做到的。”[25]但这完全是胡说八道。大多数，甚至可能是所有其他人工智能公司，如谷歌、Open AI和DeepSeek，都远远领先于埃隆·马斯克的Grok。我在此要补充一点，埃隆·马斯克在最近几个宣传视频中声称，特斯拉是“有用、通用人工智能”领域的“世界领导者”。但这远远不是事实。埃隆·马斯克所触及的任何领域都不是人工智能领域的“世界领导者”。一个都没有。令人惊讶的是，这种荒谬的自我吹嘘继续占据头条新闻，而人工智能世界的许多现实却被完全忽略了。

 

During Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call, Musk made several additional specific claims: (1) He promised to show a “mass-production-ready prototype” of Optimus V3 in Q1 2026. He described it as looking “almost like a person in a robot suit” with “unprecedented realism”. He claimed further (2) that Tesla plans to start a “million-unit” production line by the end of 2025, with mass production beginning in Q1, 2026. He stated also that his goal is to achieve the scale of millions of units, as producing only hundreds would be “meaningless”. To add “the icing to the cake”, Musk clamed (3) that an uncrewed Starship mission to Mars would launch as soon as 2026, with Optimus robots on board to test landing and operations.

在特斯拉2025年第三季度的电话财报会议上，马斯克还做出了几项具体声明：（1）他承诺在2026年第一季度展示Optimus V3的“可量产原型机”。他形容它看起来“几乎就像一个穿着机器人套装的人”，具有“前所未有的逼真度”。他进一步声称（2）特斯拉计划在2025年底前启动一条“百万级”生产线，并于2026年第一季度开始量产。他还表示，他的目标是实现百万级产量，因为只生产几百台“毫无意义”。为了“锦上添花”，马斯克声称（3）无人驾驶的星际飞船火星任务最早将于2026年发射，届时将搭载Optimus机器人以测试着陆和操作。

 

It is impossible to reconcile the contradictions between Elon Musk’s fantastic claims and real-world reality. The reality is that Optimus production was terminated entirely in late 2025 because of its severe engineering flaws, nearly-useless battery life, and poor functionality. Further, Tesla has appeared to have given up hopes of improved designs internally and has been pushing its suppliers to create new engineering models that will work. In addition is Musk’s claim that he is scrapping entirely the existing Optimus and will design a truly “humanoid” robot by the end of 2025 and begin producing it at the beginning of 2026.

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的夸大其词的宣称与现实之间的矛盾是无法调和的。事实是，由于其严重的工程缺陷、几乎无用的电池寿命以及糟糕的功能性，Optimus的生产在2025年底完全终止。此外，特斯拉似乎已放弃内部改进设计的希望，并一直在敦促其供应商开发出能正常工作的新型工程模型。另外，马斯克还声称，他将彻底淘汰现有的Optimus，并在2025年底之前设计出一款真正的“人形”机器人，并计划在2026年初开始生产。

 

To add to this is the fact that Musk’s “Starship” is far from a functioning reality. The basic design is still unproven, as are the refueling, life support, and most other aspects. At this point, at the end of 2025, Musk’s Mars Starship is a fairy-tale. The same would have to be said about the V3 “humanoid” robot. X-Peng took 7 years to perfect IRON; Musk apparently believes he can do the same in 3 months and – within that same three months – build a factory that will be mass-producing “millions”. There is nothing in this combined picture that makes any sense. This is true also for Musk’s “Robotaxi”, his “full self-driving FSD” that has been only one year away from “super-human” perfection every year since 2014. Musk’s Hyperloop, his Boring Company, Neuralink and others are in similar condition.

此外，马斯克的“星际飞船”还远未成为现实。其基本设计尚未得到验证，燃料补给、生命维持以及大多数其他方面也是如此。到2025年底，马斯克的火星星际飞船还只是一个童话。对于V3“人形”机器人来说，情况也是如此。小鹏汽车用了7年时间才完善了IRON；而马斯克显然认为他能在3个月内做到同样的事情，并且在这3个月内建造一个能够大规模生产“数百万辆”的工厂。这幅拼图中的任何部分都显得毫无逻辑。马斯克的“自动驾驶出租车”、他的“全自动驾驶FSD”（自2014年以来，每年都距离“超人”般的完美仅一步之遥）也是如此。马斯克的超级高铁、他的Boring Company、Neuralink等项目也处于类似的情况。

 

I would add here that in late 2025 Elon Musk claimed that the “humanoid” Optimus V3 would now have solid-state batteries, the same as X-Peng’s IRON. But switching to solid-state batteries is not a simple plug-and-play upgrade. A battery is a core, space-constrained component in a robot’s torso. Adopting a new battery technology with different physical properties, safety requirements, and thermal management would necessitate a significant mechanical and electrical redesign. If this claim of new battery power is true, it would confirm that the current Optimus V2.5, the “magical Musk robot that can do almost anything”, is in fact being scrapped in entirety to be replaced by a new “humanoid” model with a new power source. In fact, the adoption of solid-state batteries for Optimus would virtually demand that the current model be scrapped and totally redesigned. The problem, as I mentioned earlier, is that X-Peng took 7 years to bring IRON to the point where it appeared totally humanoid. There is no reason to believe Elon Musk can shorten this development period to only a few months, especially given the multiple issues with so many other aspects of the robot’s functioning.

我想在此补充一点，2025年底，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）声称，“人形”Optimus V3现在将配备固态电池，与小鹏的IRON一样。但改用固态电池并不是简单的即插即用升级。电池是机器人躯干中核心且空间受限的组件。采用具有不同物理特性、安全要求和热管理的新电池技术，将需要进行重大的机械和电气重新设计。如果这一新电池动力的说法属实，那么这将证实，目前“几乎无所不能的神奇马斯克机器人”Optimus V2.5实际上将被完全淘汰，取而代之的是一款配备新电源的新型“人形”机器人。事实上，Optimus采用固态电池几乎意味着现有型号将被淘汰，并需要完全重新设计。正如我之前提到的，问题在于，小鹏用了7年时间才将IRON打造得几乎完全人形。没有理由相信埃隆·马斯克能将这一开发周期缩短到仅仅几个月，尤其是考虑到机器人功能的其他多个方面存在诸多问题。

 

停产 — Termination of Production

 

 

The original goal of producing 5,000 to 10,000 Optimus humanoid robots in 2025 completely failed. [26] The robot’s quality and performance fell far short of expectations, with the 2025 production plan increasingly lowered until production was halted altogether. According to internal sources, Tesla completed the assembly of only 200 or 300 units at the Fremont plant. Prior to this, Musk claimed that he would produce 100,000 Optimus units in 2026, with production capacity exceeding one million units in 2027. The main issue lies in the development of the robot’s hand and lower arm components, leading to incomplete units sitting idle in factories. [27]

2025年生产5000至10000台Optimus人形机器人的最初目标彻底落空。[26]机器人的质量和性能远低于预期，2025年的生产计划一再下调，直至完全停产。据内部消息来源透露，特斯拉在弗里蒙特工厂仅完成了200或300台机器人的组装。在此之前，马斯克曾声称他将在2026年生产10万台Optimus，并在2027年使产能超过100万台。主要问题在于机器人手部和下臂部件的开发，导致未完工的机器人闲置在工厂里。 [27]

 

At the end of July, 2025, Tesla suspended all robot production, due to unsolved technical difficulties and senior staff departures. [27] Tesla has encountered bottlenecks in core technical problems such as overheating of the joint motor, insufficient life of the transmission mechanism, and poor battery life. In particular, the robot’s hand and the research and development of forearm parts have become fatal shortcomings. The result is that nearly all the examples produced, are unassembled piles of hardware sitting in a warehouse somewhere.

2025年7月底，由于技术难题未获解决以及高级员工离职，特斯拉暂停了所有机器人生产。[27]特斯拉在核心技术问题上遇到了瓶颈，如关节电机过热、传动机构寿命不足以及电池寿命不佳。特别是机器人的手部和前臂部件的研发已成为致命缺陷。其结果是，几乎所有生产的样品都只是堆放在某个仓库里的未组装硬件。

 

高管离职 — Executive departures

 

Tesla AI VP Milan Kovac Resigns After 9 Years Leading FSD and Optimus Projects

特斯拉人工智能副总裁米兰·科瓦奇在领导全自动驾驶（FSD）和Optimus项目9年后辞职

 

After the high-level turmoil in the middle of 2025, only two members remained of Tesla’s core management – Zhu Xiaotong, and Elon Musk. And no new senior executives had been appointed by the end of 2025. [28] VP Milan Kovac‘s departure was a loss perhaps greater than the recent loss of Andrej Karpathy, Tesla’s former director of artificial intelligence. This marked another high-profile executive exit from Elon Musk’s electric vehicle and robotics empire. Executive departures aren’t unusual at Tesla—former leaders including J.B. Straubel, Jerome Guillen, and Doug Field have all moved on.[29][30]

2025年年中高层动荡之后，特斯拉核心管理层仅剩两名成员——朱晓彤和埃隆·马斯克。截至2025年底，公司尚未任命新的高级管理人员。[28]副总裁米兰·科瓦奇的离职带来的损失，或许比特斯拉前人工智能总监安德烈·卡尔帕西最近的离职更为严重。这标志着埃隆·马斯克的电动汽车和机器人帝国又一位高管离职。特斯拉高管离职并不罕见——包括J.B.斯特劳贝尔、杰罗姆·吉伦和道格·菲尔德在内的前任领导人都已离职。[29] [30]

 

Tesla doesn’t reveal staff numbers at its Optimus project, but it is clear from recruiting reports that this project has been bleeding staff for some time, and the trend seems to be accelerating. Sunday Robotics is one such firm that seems to have poached around 50 Optimus and AI staff, [31] and there are many others. Electrek reported that Tesla’s Optimus project was in shambles after Milan Kovac, the head of the Optimus program, resigned in June, 2025, just months after being promoted to senior vice-president by Musk. [32] Latest North American Update (June 20, 2025): “Tesla’s Optimus robotics division will initiate layoffs affecting one-third of its workforce starting in July, led by the newly appointed head. The company will halt all robot component procurement for the remainder of the year.“[33]

特斯拉并未透露其Optimus项目的员工人数，但从招聘报告可以明显看出，该项目一段时间以来一直在流失员工，且这一趋势似乎正在加速。周日机器人公司（Sunday Robotics）就是其中一家似乎挖走了约50名Optimus和人工智能员工的公司[31]，还有许多其他公司也是如此。Electrek报道称，在Optimus项目负责人米兰·科瓦奇（Milan Kovac）于2025年6月辞职后，特斯拉的Optimus项目陷入混乱，而就在几个月前，马斯克还刚刚晋升他为高级副总裁。[32]最新北美更新（2025年6月20日）：“特斯拉的Optimus机器人部门将从7月开始裁员，影响三分之一的员工，由新任命的负责人领导。该公司将在今年剩余时间内停止所有机器人组件的采购。” [33]

 

第三，马斯克/奥普图斯缺陷 — Third, the Musk/Optimus Flaws

 

 

 

The technical problems with Optimus are well-documented across multiple credible sources. The hand design is the primary issue, plus motor overheating, short component lifespan, battery issues, production pauses, and leadership changes.  These core issues are not minor but are fundamental to the robot’s basic functionality. Musk’s continued promises about future production create a surreal disconnect between the proclaimed production timelines and its current serious technical challenges.

Optimus的技术问题在多个可靠消息来源中都有详细记录。手部设计是主要问题，此外还有电机过热、部件寿命短、电池问题、生产暂停以及领导层变动。这些核心问题并非无关紧要，而是关乎机器人基本功能的基础性问题。马斯克对未来生产的持续承诺，使得宣称的生产时间表与其当前面临的技术难题之间产生了令人匪夷所思的脱节。

 

Dexterous hands have always been one of the severe core difficulties of Tesla robots. According to all reports, the Optimus’ hands have a lifespan of no more than two months. Moreover, wear is quickly accelerated on the flexible electronic skin covering the fingers and palms whenever Optimus touches things, and the tendon cords that drive the fingers are prone to aging and breaking. Musk admits that the Optimus’ hands and forearms are a difficult engineering challenge, but claims the next iteration (V3) will definitely be a masterpiece. This claim is also a fairytale. Musk’s team cannot design or produce many of the functionally-acceptable components they need, and Musk is pushing this responsibility onto Tesla’s suppliers. He is not only asking them to make components for Optimus, but to do the basic engineering and to produce the designs for parts that will function well and not break. It seems Tesla hasn’t the engineering ability to make progress on its own, not for design, nor for manufacture. Musk doesn’t admit this publicly and the media avoid discussion of it, but it’s there and it’s documented.

灵巧的手一直是特斯拉机器人面临的一个严峻核心难题。据报道，Optimus的手臂使用寿命不超过两个月。此外，每当Optimus触碰物体时，覆盖在手指和手掌上的柔性电子皮肤磨损会迅速加剧，而驱动手指的肌腱绳则容易老化断裂。马斯克承认，Optimus的手和前臂是一项艰巨的工程挑战，但他声称下一代（V3）产品肯定会成为杰作。这一说法也像童话故事一样。马斯克的团队无法设计或生产出他们所需的许多功能合格的部件，而马斯克正将这一责任推给特斯拉的供应商。他不仅要求他们为Optimus制造部件，还要他们进行基本的工程设计，并为那些能正常工作且不易损坏的部件提供设计方案。特斯拉似乎没有独自取得进步的工程能力，无论是设计还是制造。马斯克没有公开承认这一点，媒体也避免讨论此事，但事实确实如此，且有文件为证。

 

The critical hand and forearm failures are perhaps the most significant obstacle. The “dexterous hands” lack human-like flexibility, cannot perform fine manipulations, and are prone to functional issues. Optimus hands specifically have unwelcome limitations in tactile sensing, in stable grasping of objects, and a uselessly-short 6-week lifespan. Many studies and articles have provided a detailed technical analysis of why Optimus hand design is fundamentally flawed, of the motor placement issues, problems in transmission accuracy, and sensory feedback limitations.  This was primarily what led to a cessation of production and a warehouse of unfinished robot “bodies” without hands.

关键的手部和前臂故障可能是最大的障碍。“灵巧手”缺乏类似人类的灵活性，无法进行精细操作，且容易出现功能问题。特别是Optimus手在触觉感知、物体稳定抓握以及使用寿命短至6周（这一长度毫无意义）方面存在诸多不利局限。许多研究和文章已就Optimus手的设计为何存在根本性缺陷、电机放置问题、传动精度问题以及感官反馈局限进行了详细的技术分析。这主要是导致生产停止和大量未完成机器人“身体”积压在仓库中的原因，这些“身体”没有手。

 

But it isn’t merely a matter of someone designing a new hand for Optimus. We still have the joints breaking, motors burning out, delicate parts wearing out, insufficient battery life, and the half-squat locomotion. And there certainly are serious problems with the “eyes only” and “camera only” sensory perception. I will deal with the sensory perception problems in more detail below. The new head of Optimus has told his staff this next year will be the most difficult of their entire careers, all due to the eyes-only transition. None of this bodes well for immediate mass production. And there is a further problem. For robots to function in society, outside a factory setting, sensory perception is crucial. In addition to vision, the robots desperately need a delicate sense of touch, almost certainly hearing, probably smell. Optimus will have none of these, and even the vision may be problematic.

但这不仅仅是有人为擎天柱设计一只新手的问题。我们仍然面临关节断裂、电机烧毁、精密部件磨损、电池续航不足以及半蹲式移动的问题。而且，“仅靠眼睛”和“仅靠摄像头”的感官感知确实存在严重问题。我将在下文更详细地讨论感官感知问题。擎天柱的新任负责人告诉他的员工，由于仅靠眼睛的过渡，明年将是他们职业生涯中最艰难的一年。所有这些都不利于立即进行大规模生产。还有一个更深层次的问题。对于机器人来说，要想在工厂环境之外的社会中发挥作用，感官感知至关重要。除了视觉之外，机器人还迫切需要敏锐的触觉、几乎可以肯定的听觉，以及可能需要的嗅觉。擎天柱将不具备这些感官，甚至视觉也可能存在问题。

 

Beyond the hands, Optimus faces a multitude of hardware defects and other problems, including joint motors that overheat, short component lifespan in transmission units, and limited battery endurance. Then we have the turmoil in leadership, where the project’s leader, Milan Kovac, departed in mid-2025, along with several other high-profile executives and team leaders.

除了人手问题，Optimus还面临着诸多硬件缺陷和其他问题，包括关节电机过热、传动单元部件寿命短以及电池续航能力有限。此外，项目还遭遇了领导层动荡，项目负责人米兰·科瓦奇（Milan Kovac）于2025年年中离职，同时离职的还有其他几位备受瞩目的高管和团队负责人。

 

Reports from late 2025 indicate that Tesla is actively testing at least three different technical schemes for Optimus’ hands, and is seeking new suppliers that can design and manufacture more reliable parts. We can conclude from this that the Optimus design is not finalised and that Tesla is relying on the supply chain not just for manufacturing, but for engineering and design solutions to core technical problems. The available information strongly suggests that the entire Optimus project is mired in significant, unsolved hardware challenges that make the stated goal of mass production in early 2026 highly improbable and likely impossible. The narrative of rapid progress appears to be running squarely into the immutable laws of physics and engineering.

2025年末的报告显示，特斯拉正在积极测试至少三种不同的Optimus机械手技术方案，并正在寻找能够设计和制造更可靠部件的新供应商。由此我们可以得出结论，Optimus的设计尚未最终确定，特斯拉不仅依赖供应链进行制造，还依赖其解决核心技术问题的工程和设计难题。现有信息强烈表明，整个Optimus项目陷入了重大的、尚未解决的硬件挑战之中，这使得2026年初实现大规模生产的既定目标变得极不可能，甚至是不可能的。快速进展的叙述似乎直接与物理和工程的不变定律相悖。

 

July 2025 reports show that Tesla had to pause production specifically because of these hardware defects:

2025年7月的报告显示，特斯拉不得不暂停生产，原因正是这些硬件缺陷：

 

– Joints & Motors: Joint motors prone to overheating, and transmission parts with a very short service life.

– 关节与电机：关节电机容易过热，传动部件的使用寿命极短。

– Battery Life: a runtime of only 2 hours or less; This limited endurance is a recognised hardware defect.

– 电池寿命：运行时间仅2小时或更短；这种有限的续航能力是公认的硬件缺陷。

– Hand Reliability: The “dexterous hands” have low load capacity and a short operational lifespan. One report specified a lifespan of only six weeks during training tasks, with a cost of over $6,000 per hand.

– 手的可靠性：“灵巧手”的负载能力较低，使用寿命较短。一份报告指出，在执行训练任务时，其使用寿命仅为六周，且每只手的花费超过6000美元。

– Critical Lack of Fine Touch: Fingertip sensors capture only basic pressure data, lacking perception of texture and temperature, making fine manipulation like stably grasping an egg impossible. The absence of sophisticated tactile feedback is a core bottleneck, preventing robots from performing precise tasks and judging the force needed for actions.

– 精细触觉严重缺失：指尖传感器仅能捕捉基本的压力数据，缺乏对纹理和温度的感知，因此无法进行精细操作，如稳定地抓取鸡蛋。缺乏复杂的触觉反馈是核心瓶颈，阻碍了机器人执行精确任务和判断动作所需的力量。

– Sensory Perception – Vision-Only Limitations: A vision-dominant approach is prone to failure in low-light or obstructed environments.

– 感官感知 – 仅依赖视觉的局限性：在低光照或受阻环境中，以视觉为主导的方法容易失败。

 

The combined influence of hardware reliability issues, a critical deficit in tactile sensing, and the inherent limitations of a vision-only system creates a set of challenges that are foundational, not incremental. Overcoming them will require significant time and fundamental re-engineering, not just iterative improvements. This reality is starkly at odds with the timeline for a factory capable of producing a million units in 2026. There will be no mass production of Optimus in 2026, and it is possible that the combination of these defects could spell the death knell for Optimus. When the world sees the almost-human IRON walking, dancing, riding a bicycle, and available in quantity, the world’s attention might permanently shift from Tesla to IRON and other Chinese humanoid robots. And even if Optimus does go into later production, nobody may be interested.

硬件可靠性问题、触觉感知方面的严重不足以及纯视觉系统的固有局限性，这些因素共同构成了一系列基础性而非渐进性的挑战。要克服这些挑战，需要投入大量时间并从根本上进行重新设计，而不仅仅是进行迭代式改进。这一现实与2026年工厂能够生产一百万台机器人的时间表相去甚远。2026年Optimus将不会实现大规模生产，而这些缺陷的结合可能会为Optimus敲响丧钟。当世界看到几乎像人类一样的IRON能够行走、跳舞、骑自行车，并且能够批量生产时，世界的注意力可能会永久地从特斯拉转向IRON和其他中国仿人机器人。即使Optimus确实投入后期生产，可能也没有人会感兴趣。

 

This confluence of circumstances could indeed be critical for Optimus’ survival. When a product as visually impressive and readily available as IRON enters the market, it can capture the public and commercial imagination. If Optimus is perceived as perpetually delayed, technically flawed, and philosophically rigid, the market may indeed move on. For Optimus to avoid fading into obscurity, Tesla would need to rapidly overcome its profound hardware challenges, achieve a cost-effective and reliable design, and demonstrate that its vision-only approach can outperform multi-sensor systems in real-world, non-factory environments. This is a formidable task, and the timeline for success is uncertain. [34] But realistically, Musk would likely need a decade or more to sort out all the existing problems, complete total redesigns that are production-ready, create a dependable supply chain, and actually build a functioning manufacturing process.

这一系列情况交织在一起，对于Optimus的生存而言确实至关重要。当一款如IRON这般视觉震撼且易于获取的产品进入市场时，它能够吸引公众和商业界的想象力。如果Optimus被视为永远拖延、技术上有缺陷且理念僵化，那么市场或许真的会转向。为了防止Optimus逐渐淡出人们的视线，特斯拉需要迅速克服其深层次的硬件挑战，实现具有成本效益且可靠的设计，并证明其纯视觉方法在现实世界的非工厂环境中能够超越多传感器系统。这是一项艰巨的任务，成功的时间表尚不确定。[34]但现实地看，马斯克可能需要十年或更长时间来解决所有现有问题，完成可投入生产的全面重新设计，建立可靠的供应链，并真正构建起一个可运行的制造流程。

 

IRON has already demonstrated concrete functionality while Optimus is fundamentally unproven. The shift in Optimus training methods to eyes-only is an admission of prior failures, and highlights the lack of public, verifiable demonstrations from Tesla compared to X-Peng’s transparency. IRON’s catwalk moment represents a real engineering milestone, while Optimus’s “potential” remains just that—potential.

IRON已经展示了具体功能，而Optimus则从根本上未经证实。Optimus训练方法转向仅依赖视觉，是对之前失败的承认，并凸显了特斯拉缺乏公开、可验证的演示，相比之下小鹏则更加透明。IRON的走秀时刻代表着真正的工程里程碑，而Optimus的“潜力”仍然只是潜力。

 

缺陷：运动和平衡 — Flaws: Locomotion and Balance

 

 

Tesla’s Optimus is fundamentally unstable in locomotion. If it had to walk with its legs fully extended and its feet flat on the floor, it would fall over and come crashing to the ground. It isn’t much more stable when stationary; in internal reports, Tesla staff say that Optimus robots fall half the time when performing tasks that require any bending or tilting, sometimes damaging expensive equipment. Unless performing a task that requires moving more than a few feet, Optimus robots are usually tied to a support frame to stay upright. And that is simply bad engineering design. A robot should be able to easily stay upright; the standing and balancing should have been the first thing Musk addressed. But he didn’t address it. Instead of recognising and admitting a flawed design, Musk decided it was sufficient for Optimus to walk in a perpetual half-squat, like a chimpanzee.

特斯拉的Optimus在移动时根本不稳定。如果它必须双腿完全伸直、双脚平放在地面上行走，就会摔倒并重重地摔到地上。静止时也并不比行走时更稳定；在内部报告中，特斯拉员工表示，Optimus机器人在执行任何需要弯曲或倾斜的任务时，有一半时间会摔倒，有时还会损坏昂贵的设备。除非执行的任务需要移动超过几英尺，否则Optimus机器人通常会绑在支架上以保持直立。这完全是糟糕的工程设计。机器人应该能够轻松保持直立；站立和平衡应该是马斯克首先要解决的问题。但他没有解决这个问题。马斯克没有认识到并承认设计存在缺陷，而是认为Optimus像黑猩猩一样永远半蹲着行走就足够了。

 

 

X-Peng’s IRON robot (as one example) walks perfectly like a human, but Musk’s Optimus walks strangely, with its knees always bent, as if in a partial squat or a crouch. The bent-knee “crouched” posture of Optimus is a well-known crutch in robotics and is common in many bipedal robots. This stance dramatically lowers the robot’s center of gravity, which significantly simplifies the challenge of balance and prevents falls. It’s a shortcut that prioritises not falling down during demonstrations, over achieving a truly human-like, efficient, and dynamic gait. This is not a prize-worthy trade-off; it’s an admission that the current design cannot achieve stable, upright locomotion. A stable, upright bipedal walk requires a high center of gravity to allow for dynamic balance and a natural gait cycle. However, this is incredibly difficult to control. The unusual posture and appearance of Optimus are the result of deliberate engineering trade-offs to produce a semblance of stability.

小鹏的IRON机器人（作为一个例子）走起路来完全像人类，但马斯克的Optimus走起路来却很奇怪，膝盖总是弯曲着，仿佛处于半蹲或蹲下的状态。Optimus这种膝盖弯曲的“蹲下”姿势是机器人技术中众所周知的权宜之计，在许多双足机器人中很常见。这种姿势极大地降低了机器人的重心，从而大大简化了平衡的挑战，并防止摔倒。这是一种捷径，优先考虑的是在演示过程中不摔倒，而不是实现真正像人类一样高效、有活力的步态。这不是一个值得称赞的权衡；而是承认当前的设计无法实现稳定、直立的移动。稳定、直立的双足行走需要较高的重心，以实现动态平衡和自然的步态周期。然而，这极难控制。Optimus不同寻常的姿势和外观是故意进行工程权衡的结果，以产生一种稳定的表象。

 

I have written an essay comparing Elon Musk’s Optimus with X-Peng’s IRON. It contains much comparative information that readers may find useful: The Beauty and the Beast — IRON and Optimus: A Tale of Two Robots.[35]

我写了一篇论文，对比了埃隆·马斯克的Optimus和X-Peng的IRON。文中包含了许多对比信息，读者可能会觉得有用：《美女与野兽》——IRON和Optimus：两个机器人的故事 [35]

 

Humans walk like an inverted pendulum, with straight legs for most of the stride, which is highly energy-efficient. IRON’s “catwalk” demonstrates this principle. In contrast, a constant crouch gait, as seen with Optimus, is less efficient, consumes more power, looks unnatural, and the joints are perpetually under load. The squat posture in locomotion is a flaw, not a feature, a fundamental compensation for a design that cannot achieve stable, upright motion, a solution for a robot that would otherwise topple. It was the only way to prevent Optimus from falling on its face whenever it tried to walk. The bent-knee posture in locomotion is a compensation for stability issues, not some brilliant design innovation. That doesn’t deserve a prize.

人类走路时就像一个倒立摆，大部分步幅中腿部都是直的，这种姿势非常节能。IRON的“猫步”展示了这一原理。相比之下，像擎天柱那样持续蹲着的步态效率较低，消耗更多能量，看起来也不自然，且关节始终处于负荷状态。移动中的蹲姿是一种缺陷，而非特征，是对无法实现稳定直立运动的设计的一种基本补偿，是防止机器人摔倒的一种解决方案。这是唯一能防止擎天柱每次尝试行走时都摔倒的方法。移动中的屈膝姿势是对稳定性问题的补偿，而非某种出色的设计创新。它不值得获奖。

 

The locomotion and general appearance of IRON and Optimus in motion reflect fundamental differences in their design philosophies and engineering choices. With Optimus, Musk made deliberate engineering trade-offs where he sacrificed refinement for basic stability while in motion. That sounds like poor planning and an impoverished design philosophy, which means they had to make Optimus function awkwardly, to prevent it from falling on its face.

IRON和Optimus在运动中的移动方式和整体外观反映了它们在设计理念和工程选择上的根本差异。在Optimus的设计中，马斯克进行了深思熟虑的工程权衡，牺牲了精致性以换取运动中的基本稳定性。这听起来像是计划不周和设计理念贫乏，这意味着他们不得不让Optimus功能笨拙，以防止它摔个底朝天。

 

Here is a video of Optimus running and moving its fingers. [36] This one was also widely circulated, and presented as a victorious accomplishment, but the running is “bent-knee and slow motion”, and the hand motions are primitive and clumsy. Compare this to IRON’s dancing and somersaults to understand the difference in capability. Here is another video of three different robots (two American and one Chinese) to give you some idea of relative ability. [37] For additional comparison, here is a short video of Optimus and EngineAI’s T800 robot. [38] Compared to Optimus’ limited abilities, the T800 is awesome. Here is a short video comparing the walking sophistication of IRON and Optimus side by side. [39] This last one is a kung fu comparison video.[40]

以下是Optimus跑步和移动手指的视频。[36]这个视频也被广泛传播，并被视为一项胜利的成就，但跑步时“膝盖弯曲且动作缓慢”，手势也显得原始而笨拙。将其与IRON的舞蹈和翻筋斗进行对比，就能理解能力上的差异。以下是三个不同机器人（两个美国机器人和一个中国机器人）的视频，供您了解相对能力。[37]为了进一步对比，以下是Optimus和EngineAI的T800机器人的短视频。[38]与Optimus有限的能力相比，T800的表现令人惊叹。以下是对比IRON和Optimus行走复杂性的短视频。[39]最后一个是功夫对比视频。 [40]

 

缺陷：感官感知 — Flaws: Sensory Perception

 

 

The focus on sensory perception touches on what may be the most profound long-term challenge. The industry is increasingly recognising that for a robot to operate effectively in unstructured human environments, vision alone is insufficient. The problem with Optimus’s hands isn’t just mechanical; it’s perceptual. As one analysis notes, a robot’s inability to feel what it touches creates a major bottleneck. Without the ability to perceive texture, temperature, and subtle forces, a robot cannot perform reliable fine motor tasks, a requirement for any application outside a highly controlled factory setting. Current reports focus on the critical shortfall in tactile sensing, but the integration of additional senses like hearing/audio for complex voice commands and situational awareness would indeed be necessary for a true general-purpose robotic companion.

对感官感知的关注触及了可能是最深远且长期的挑战。业界日益认识到，机器人若要在非结构化的人类环境中有效运作，仅凭视觉是不够的。Optimus的手部问题不仅仅是机械性的；它还涉及感知方面。正如一项分析所指出的，机器人无法感知其所触之物，这构成了主要瓶颈。若无法感知纹理、温度和微妙的力量，机器人便无法执行可靠的精细运动任务，而这对于高度控制的工厂环境之外的任何应用都是必不可少的。目前的报告聚焦于触觉感知方面的关键不足，但对于一个真正的通用机器人伴侣而言，确实有必要整合听觉/音频等额外感官，以实现复杂的语音指令和情境感知。

 

Added to this is the case for multi-sensor fusion. Many in the industry and academia argue that a combination of sensors (LiDAR, radar, cameras) provides more robust perception. The core argument is that LiDAR can directly and accurately measure distance in 3D without being affected by lighting conditions to the same degree as cameras. Proponents believe a fused-sensor system is inherently safer and more reliable. Tesla’s stance is that a pure vision system, backed by powerful AI and a massive data engine (both imaginary, so far), is sufficient and avoids the complexities and costs of sensor fusion. However, this approach inherits the inherent weaknesses of biological eyes, such as susceptibility to strong light, low light, and adverse weather like heavy rain and fog. While Tesla’s algorithms have improved, these remain fundamental challenges that other companies seek to overcome with additional sensors.

此外，还有多传感器融合的情况。许多业内人士和学者认为，传感器（激光雷达、雷达、摄像头）的组合能提供更稳健的感知能力。核心论点是，激光雷达能够直接且准确地测量三维距离，且受光照条件的影响程度低于摄像头。支持者认为，融合传感器系统本质上更安全、更可靠。特斯拉则认为，一个由强大的AI和庞大的数据引擎（目前均为设想）支持的纯视觉系统就足够了，而且避免了传感器融合的复杂性和成本。然而，这种方法继承了生物眼睛的固有弱点，如易受强光、弱光以及大雨、大雾等恶劣天气的影响。尽管特斯拉的算法有所改进，但这些仍是其他公司试图通过增加传感器来克服的根本挑战。

 

I assume readers are familiar with Tesla’s many tribulations over its “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) software. Elon Musk claims that “humans use eyes and brains to drive”, so camera vision is all that is necessary for autos. Musk continues to promote this as fully-autonomous and far superior to human control, while 1,000 accidents and nearly 100 deaths suggest otherwise. The main issue is that Elon Musk made a decision years ago to forego quality and security in the design of FSD, in favor of low cost coupled with engineering incompetence. And that meant foregoing most of the advanced sensors available like radar and LIDAR, and to proceed with a camera-only version of autonomous driving software. To say this was a bad decision would be quite an understatement. This is important for our purpose here, because this stubborn flawed reasoning has been transferred From Tesla to Optimus, almost certainly to experience the same unpleasant results.

我假设读者已经了解特斯拉在其“完全自动驾驶”（FSD）软件上所经历的诸多磨难。埃隆·马斯克声称“人类靠眼睛和大脑来驾驶”，因此摄像头视觉是汽车所需的一切。马斯克继续宣扬这一技术是完全自动驾驶的，且远优于人类控制，然而1000起事故和近100起死亡事故表明事实并非如此。主要问题是，埃隆·马斯克多年前就决定在FSD的设计中放弃质量和安全，转而追求低成本，再加上工程上的无能。这意味着放弃了大多数可用的先进传感器，如雷达和激光雷达，而继续使用仅配备摄像头的自动驾驶软件版本。说这是一个糟糕的决定，都算是轻描淡写了。这对我们在这里的目的很重要，因为这种固执的有缺陷的推理已经从特斯拉转移到了Optimus，几乎可以肯定也会带来同样令人不快的结果。

 

Ashok Elluswamy was the leader of Tesla’s autonomous driving team (the ill-fated FSD), then moved to Optimus, where he immediately pushed the team to shift its R&D focus to camera-centric perception and learning solutions, the identical technical path he used for the training methodology of Tesla’s FSD software. [41] This may prove to be a critical failing of Optimus, because forward-looking “eyes-only” sensors will never be sufficient for a robot wanting to be “humanoid”. This was not just a technical choice but a deeply held ideological philosophy, [42] and Musk will not likely back down from his stubborn position.

阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米（Ashok Elluswamy）曾是特斯拉自动驾驶团队（命运多舛的全自动驾驶系统FSD）的负责人，之后他转至Optimus，并立即推动团队将其研发重点转向以摄像头为中心的感知和学习解决方案，这与他用于特斯拉FSD软件训练方法的技术路径完全相同。[41]这可能被证明是Optimus的一个关键失误，因为对于一个想要“类人化”的机器人来说，仅靠前瞻性的“纯视觉”传感器是远远不够的。这不仅仅是一个技术选择，而是一种根深蒂固的意识形态理念，[42]而马斯克（Musk）不太可能放弃他固执的立场。

 

The core of the debate lies in the observation that a robot functioning in dynamic human spaces needs more than simple vision. The prevailing expert opinion suggests that for a robot to be truly capable and safe in unstructured environments like homes or hospitals, it would need to integrate a suite of sensors. Relying solely on cameras could be the Optimus project’s biggest strategic risk, as it ignores other sensory dimensions critical to physical interaction and nuanced understanding. But Musk has closed this door and is committing Optimus to the same flawed sensory perception as with the Tesla autos. I have difficulty seeing how this can come to a good end.

争论的核心在于这样一个观点：在动态的人类空间中运行的机器人需要的不仅仅是简单的视觉。主流专家意见认为，机器人要想在家庭或医院等非结构化环境中真正具备能力和安全性，就需要集成一套传感器。仅依赖摄像头可能是Optimus项目的最大战略风险，因为它忽略了对于物理交互和细致理解至关重要的其他感官维度。但马斯克已经关闭了这扇门，并让Optimus陷入了与特斯拉汽车相同的感官感知缺陷。我很难看出这会有一个好的结局。

 

Until now, Tesla was using motion pictures to “train” Optimus to do things. But Tesla has abandoned the motion capture and shifted Optimus training from motion capture to a data collection method that relies solely on cameras. [43] This involves having employees perform tasks while being recorded to generate vast amounts of training videos. Dozens of Tesla employees spend their shifts repeatedly performing everyday actions like lifting cups, wiping tables, and pulling curtains. The aim is to use this “pure visual” data to teach the robot’s AI model how humans move.

直到现在，特斯拉一直在使用动态图像来“训练”Optimus执行任务。但特斯拉已经放弃了动作捕捉技术，并将Optimus的训练方式从动作捕捉转变为仅依赖摄像头的数据收集方法。[43]这涉及让员工在执行任务的同时被记录下来，以生成大量的训练视频。数十名特斯拉员工在轮班期间反复执行日常动作，如提起杯子、擦拭桌子和拉窗帘。其目的是利用这种“纯视觉”数据来教机器人的AI模型如何模仿人类的动作。

 

The eyes only, camera-only approach is more difficult than it appears. [44] Until 2025, Tesla was using motion pictures to “train” Optimus to do things, but now Optimus is being trained by watching videos taken by Tesla staff. More than 100 Tesla employees spend their shifts repeatedly performing everyday actions like lifting cups, wiping tables, and pulling curtains. [45] The idea seems to be that if Optimus can see videos of every possible thing or action, it may know how to behave in that situation. But it is widely recognised that camera only is not an ideal solution. Musk claims having cameras and LIDAR is unsafe because the car (or the robot) won’t know how to react if the two sensory inputs seem to disagree. [46] But that’s just an excuse to justify a position he’s already taken.

仅使用摄像头的方法比看起来要困难得多。[44]直到2025年，特斯拉一直在使用动态图像来“训练”Optimus执行任务，但现在Optimus是通过观看特斯拉员工拍摄的视频来进行训练的。100多名特斯拉员工在轮班时反复执行日常动作，如提起杯子、擦拭桌子和拉窗帘。[45]其想法似乎是，如果Optimus能看到所有可能的事物或动作的视频，它可能就会知道在那种情况下该如何表现。但人们普遍认为，仅使用摄像头并不是一个理想的解决方案。马斯克声称，同时使用摄像头和激光雷达是不安全的，因为如果两种传感输入似乎不一致，汽车（或机器人）将不知道如何反应。[46]但这只是他为已采取的立场辩解的借口。

 

The core issue is that Tesla’s strategy, while plausible in theory, has proven difficult to execute. The system’s documented vulnerabilities in bad weather and with unexpected objects (“AI illusions”) demonstrate that digital “eyes” are not a perfect substitute for human perception and reasoning. Furthermore, it lacks the human capacity for intuition and learning from a lifetime of subtle experiences.

核心问题在于，特斯拉的战略虽然在理论上可行，但实践证明难以执行。该系统在恶劣天气和意外物体（“人工智能错觉”）方面的记录漏洞表明，数字“眼睛”并不能完美替代人类的感知和推理能力。此外，它缺乏人类通过一生微妙的经历所培养的直觉和学习能力。

 

While the scale of this effort is significant, the vision-only path is fraught with difficulties. A major technical hurdle is that video data is often low-quality. More critically, video lacks crucial information a robot needs to interact with the physical world, such as joint angles, tactile sensations, and force feedback. Teaching a robot to apply the correct amount of force to pick up an egg, for instance, is incredibly difficult without touch sensors.

尽管这项工作的规模庞大，但仅依赖视觉的路径却困难重重。一个主要的技术障碍是视频数据往往质量低下。更关键的是，视频缺乏机器人与物理世界交互所需的关键信息，如关节角度、触觉感知和力反馈。例如，如果没有触觉传感器，教机器人以正确的力度拿起一个鸡蛋就变得异常困难。

 

The concern is that this is a dead-end path driven by Musk’s stubbornness rather than technical merit. Many robotics professors and experts in the broader industry recognise the importance of multi-modal sensing, and there are many academic papers on why robots need broad sensing capabilities. Most experts share my skepticism about vision-only approaches, and the entire industry – except for Elon Musk – is moving toward multi-modal sensing. Video lacks crucial information a robot needs to interact with the physical world, such as joint angles, tactile sensations, and force feedback.

令人担忧的是，这条死路是由马斯克的固执而非技术优势所推动的。许多机器人学教授和更广泛行业内的专家都认识到了多模态感知的重要性，并且有许多学术论文探讨了机器人为何需要广泛的感知能力。大多数专家都与我一样对仅依赖视觉的方法持怀疑态度，而整个行业（除了埃隆·马斯克之外）都在向多模态感知发展。视频缺乏机器人与物理世界交互所需的关键信息，如关节角度、触觉感知和力反馈。

 

Official development standards explicitly call for multi-modal perception for robots. This means integrating various sensors to enable functions like scene understanding and object recognition, moving beyond a single type of sensory input. Furthermore, robotics researchers argue that for safe and effective integration into human environments, robots will need enhanced perception, including auditory systems to understand language and tone, and tactile sensors to better control their interactions. This stands in contrast to Musk’s vision-only paradigm.

官方开发标准明确要求机器人具备多模态感知能力。这意味着要集成各种传感器，以实现场景理解和物体识别等功能，而不仅仅是单一类型的感官输入。此外，机器人研究人员认为，为了安全有效地融入人类环境，机器人需要增强的感知能力，包括理解语言和语调的听觉系统，以及更好地控制其交互的触觉传感器。这与马斯克的纯视觉范式形成了鲜明对比。

 

However, it will be impossible for Musk to change this architecture now, because Optimus is copying the identical system used for Tesla cars. To alter Optimus’ sensory functions would either invalidate all the training material or require Tesla to scrap their auto’s eyes-only system and adopt LIDAR as most other auto manufacturers have done. Two very expensive choices.

然而，马斯克现在不可能改变这种架构，因为Optimus正在复制特斯拉汽车所使用的相同系统。若要改变Optimus的传感功能，要么使所有训练材料失效，要么要求特斯拉放弃其仅使用摄像头系统，并像大多数其他汽车制造商一样采用激光雷达。这两种选择都非常昂贵。

 

This full commitment to a cameras-only sensory system isn’t just for Optimus’ “eyes”; it extends to how the robot is trained. This means the core AI models for understanding the world are shared between the Tesla car and the robot.  This approach is rooted in a long-held belief at Tesla, often stated by Elon Musk, that a vision-only system is sufficient and even superior. The argument against sensors like LIDAR is that when their data conflicts with camera data, it creates confusion and uncertainty for the AI, potentially increasing risk.  While the vision-only path offers potential benefits in cost and simplicity, there are several critical challenges.

这种对仅摄像头传感系统的全面投入不仅体现在Optimus的“眼睛”上，还延伸到了机器人的训练方式。这意味着，特斯拉汽车和机器人共享用于理解世界的核心人工智能（AI）模型。这一方法植根于特斯拉长期以来的信念，埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）也经常表示，仅视觉系统就足够了，甚至更优越。反对激光雷达（LIDAR）等传感器的理由是，当它们的数据与摄像头数据冲突时，会给人工智能带来困惑和不确定性，从而可能增加风险。尽管仅视觉路径在成本和简化方面具有潜在优势，但也存在几个关键挑战。

 

The camera-only system avoids expensive sensors like LIDAR, and a single type of sensor input avoids the complex “sensor fusion” problem of reconciling conflicting data from different sources. But pure vision systems struggle with object recognition delays in rain, fog, or strong backlight, and may misjudge the distance to low-lying obstacles. The evidence is that this one-sensor strategy could be a “critical failing”. Most everyone claims that cars are “just robots too”, but there is a huge difference between the “intelligence” required by a car to avoid a tree, and a “humanoid” robot baby-sitting the children.

纯摄像头系统避免了使用昂贵的传感器，如激光雷达，并且单一类型的传感器输入避免了协调来自不同消息来源的冲突数据的复杂“传感器融合”问题。但纯视觉系统在雨天、雾天或强背光环境下难以识别物体，并可能误判与低矮障碍物的距离。有证据表明，这种单一传感器策略可能是一个“关键缺陷”。几乎所有人都声称汽车“也不过是机器人而已”，但汽车避让树木所需的“智能”与“人形”机器人照顾儿童所需的“智能”之间存在巨大差异。

 

The core issue is that a humanoid robot operates in a fully 3D, dynamic environment where stability, dexterity, and spatial awareness are paramount. The challenges seen in FSD, while serious, primarily occur in the relatively structured environment of a road network. Translating that same sensory philosophy to a bipedal robot navigating cluttered, human-centric spaces is a significantly more complex problem.

核心问题在于，人形机器人在一个完全三维、动态的环境中运行，其中稳定性、灵巧性和空间感知能力至关重要。尽管固定场景驾驶（Fixed Scenario Driving，FSD）中面临的挑战十分严峻，但这些挑战主要出现在相对结构化的道路网络环境中。而将同样的感知理念应用于在杂乱、以人为中心的空间中导航的双足机器人，则是一个复杂得多的问题。

 

The approach of X-Peng and other Chinese robotic companies to the sensor and dexterity problem presents a stark contrast to the vision-only strategy of Elon Musk. They are also aggressively pursuing advanced tactile sensing as a critical, non-negotiable component for achieving true robotic dexterity. The common thread is a belief that a robot must have a rich sense of touch to interact reliably with the physical world. Researchers at Fudan University frame tactile sensing as “the last kilometer” challenge for fine robotic manipulation. They argue that without it, robots will never reliably perform delicate tasks in unstructured environments. When we place this multifaceted, sensor-rich approach next to Tesla’s vision-only strategy, the difference in technical philosophy is profound. Chinese companies are operating on the premise that dexterity requires a constant, high-fidelity stream of tactile data to complement visual perception. They are publicly demonstrating robots that use this data to perform fine motor tasks that remain a significant challenge for most other humanoid robots.

小鹏科技（X-Peng）和其他中国机器人公司解决传感器和灵巧性问题的方法与埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的纯视觉策略形成了鲜明对比。他们还积极追求先进的触觉感知技术，将其视为实现真正机器人灵巧性的关键且不可或缺的组成部分。两者的共同点在于，都认为机器人必须具备丰富的触觉感知能力，才能与物理世界进行可靠的交互。复旦大学的研究人员将触觉感知视为机器人精细操控的“最后一公里”挑战。他们认为，如果没有触觉感知，机器人就永远无法在非结构化环境中可靠地执行精细任务。当我们将这种多层面、传感器丰富的策略与特斯拉的纯视觉策略进行比较时，技术理念上的差异十分显著。中国公司的运营前提是，灵巧性需要持续、高保真的触觉数据流来补充视觉感知。他们正在公开演示使用这些数据执行精细运动任务的机器人，而这些任务对大多数其他人形机器人来说仍然是一个重大挑战。

 

缺陷：美观性 — Flaws: Aesthetics

 

It is also true that the Optimus aesthetics reflect a lack of final-product vision. The design appears to be what happens when the goal is a quick, functional demo rather than a polished, viable product. IRON’s design philosophy is superior. It demonstrates a higher level of ambition and a more mature approach to solving the core problems of humanoid robotics, notably locomotion and human interaction. The comparison doesn’t just show different “choices”; it highlights a significant gap in the sophistication and maturity of the underlying technology and design intent. Based on the evidence of their respective robots’ capabilities, the view that IRON’s designers had far higher standards is a perfectly reasonable conclusion.

同样无可否认的是，Optimus的设计美学反映出其缺乏对最终产品的远见。其设计似乎只是为了快速、功能性的演示，而非打造一款精致、可行的产品。而IRON的设计理念则更为卓越。它展现了更高的雄心和更成熟的方法来解决人形机器人的核心问题，尤其是运动和人机交互。这种对比不仅展示了不同的“选择”，更凸显了底层技术和设计意图在复杂性和成熟度上的显著差距。根据各自机器人能力的证据，认为IRON的设计师拥有更高标准的观点是完全合理的。

 

Look at the picture below, and answer this question: In what way does this random collection of used auto parts qualify as “humanoid”?

看看下面的图片，并回答这个问题：这些随意堆放的二手汽车零件是如何符合“人形”这一描述的？

 

Image Source: Tesla

图片来源：特斯拉

 

Optimus’ design was from the aesthetics of necessity, not philosophy. When a design is elegant and functional, its engineering can be a point of pride. However, the exposed, unpleasant joint where the torso meets the legs on Optimus is more indicative of a modular, hastily assembled design focused on proving basic functionality and prioritising speed of development and low cost over refinement. IRON’s synthetic skin and sleek torso, while potentially more expensive and complex, demonstrate a design philosophy that has considered the final product’s integration into a human environment from the start.

擎天柱的设计源自必要性的美学，而非哲学。当设计既优雅又实用时，其工程工艺可以成为一种骄傲。然而，擎天柱躯干与腿部连接处裸露且不美观的接缝，更多地表明这是一种模块化、匆忙组装的设计，其重点在于证明基本功能，并优先考虑开发速度和低成本，而非精致度。而钢铁侠的合成皮肤和流线型躯干，虽然可能更昂贵、更复杂，但它们所展现的设计哲学是从一开始就考虑到了最终产品与人类环境的融合。

 

The reality of Musk’s Optimus is that his design was badly flawed and his solution was to use a crude, power-inefficient crouch gait to simplify the balance problem – an engineering compromise for stability. It is similar with appearance in aesthetic and form. Optimus is utilitarian and unfinished. It reflects a prototype mindset where basic function is the only goal. And the exposed mechanics signal a work-in-progress, not a “proud display” of its mechanical nature. In designing IRON, X-Peng chose biomimicry for efficiency. They accepted the greater design and control challenges in aiming for a natural, energy-efficient gait. The core software and mechanical design (weight distribution) are advanced enough to produce a more difficult, but ultimately much superior, form of locomotion.

马斯克的Optimus的现实是，其设计存在严重缺陷，而他的解决方案是采用一种粗陋且低效的蹲伏步态来简化平衡问题——这是一种为了稳定性而做出的工程妥协。在美学和形态上，其外观也显得类似。Optimus注重实用性，且尚未完成。它反映了一种原型思维，即基本功能是唯一目标。而暴露的机械结构则表明它仍在研发中，而非对其机械特性的“自豪展示”。在设计IRON时，小鹏选择了仿生学以提高效率。他们接受了更大的设计和控制挑战，旨在实现一种自然、节能的步态。核心软件和机械设计（重量分布）足够先进，能够产生一种更复杂但最终更优越的运动形式。

 

Although admittedly beauty is in the eye of the beholder, I find the physical appearance of Optimus to be unusual and not particularly attractive. This design was partially from inadequate engineering ability, and partly due to cost. As to Optimus’ appearance, the media hype claims “Tesla has opted for a design that proudly displays its mechanical nature. The visible joints and actuators signal a focus on raw functionality and engineering substance over form.” That is just face-saving marketing nonsense. The exposed joints are evidence of Musk prioritising rapid iteration over polished design. I think the truth is closer to “We tried, but couldn’t make a humanoid robot, so we did the best we could with a machine.”

诚然，美在旁观者眼中，但我觉得Optimus的外形并不寻常，也不是特别吸引人。这种设计部分是由于工程能力不足，部分是由于成本问题。至于Optimus的外形，媒体大肆宣传称“特斯拉选择了一种自豪地展示其机械本质的设计。可见的关节和执行器表明，特斯拉更注重原始功能和工程实质，而非外形。”这不过是自欺欺人的营销废话。暴露的关节证明马斯克更看重快速迭代而非精雕细琢的设计。我认为事实更接近于“我们尝试过，但没能造出人形机器人，所以我们用机器做到了最好。”

 

I don’t believe that Optimus is “proudly displaying” its unattractive mechanical construction, so much as it is evidence of impoverished design and a lack of creative engineering talent. I would remind readers that when Elon Musk first introduced his “robot” to the public, it was a female dancer in spandex, and he boasted that he would produce a “humanoid” Tesla robot. The fact that he didn’t, means that he couldn’t. Musk and Tesla abandoned the idea of a humanoid robot and instead produced an industrial machine. This isn’t just philosophical difference but demonstrates different stages of maturity in tackling the core physics problem of bipedal locomotion.

我不认为擎天柱是在“自豪地展示”其毫无吸引力的机械构造，它更多地是证明了设计上的贫乏和缺乏创造性工程人才。我想提醒读者，当埃隆·马斯克首次向公众介绍他的“机器人”时，那是一个穿着弹力舞衣的女舞者，他夸口说他将制造出“人形”特斯拉机器人。他没有做到这一点，意味着他做不到。马斯克和特斯拉放弃了人形机器人的想法，而是生产了一台工业机器。这不仅仅是哲学上的差异，还表明了在解决两足运动的核心物理问题方面所处成熟度的不同阶段。

 

The design philosophy behind X-Peng’s IRON and its 7-year development cycle weren’t just about technical refinement but about mastering the psychological aspects of human-robot interaction. Tesla’s rushed compromises ignored all this. X-Peng’s patience and cultural commitment to quality (7 years in development) contrast sharply with Musk’s “move fast and break things” mentality. The focus on biomimicry isn’t just engineering—it’s a holistic understanding that aesthetics and movement are as critical as functionality for social integration. This isn’t just better engineering; it’s more thoughtful product design. IRON’s design was not just someone’s subjective preference; it was a recognition of a fundamentally more mature and sophisticated engineering and design culture. IRON perfectly encapsulates the philosophy that separates a long-term visionary project from a quick demo.

小鹏汽车IRON的设计理念及其7年的开发周期，不仅关乎技术上的精进，更在于掌握人机交互的心理层面。特斯拉的仓促妥协忽视了这一切。小鹏汽车对质量的耐心和文化承诺（7年的开发时间）与马斯克的“快速行动，勇于试错”心态形成了鲜明对比。对仿生的关注不仅仅是工程上的考量，更是一种整体性的理解，即美学和运动对于社会融合而言与功能性同样重要。这不仅仅是更好的工程，更是更具深度的产品设计。IRON的设计不仅仅是某人的主观偏好，更是对一种从根本上更加成熟和复杂的工程与设计文化的认可。IRON完美地体现了将长期有远见的项目与快速演示区分开来的理念。

 

This long-term, holistic approach is a hallmark of companies that prioritise a polished final product over rapid, hype-generating news cycles. It demonstrates a confidence that comes from a deep-seated belief in the quality of the underlying work, rather than a need for constant external validation through ambitious media announcements. X-Peng’s journey with IRON reflects a company building a platform for the future, while Tesla’s current Optimus prototype feels like a company building a demonstration for the present.

这种长期、全面的方法，是那些重视打造精美成品而非追求快速、能引发轰动的新闻周期的公司所具有的标志。它展现了一种自信，这种自信源于对基础工作质量的深信不疑，而非需要通过雄心勃勃的媒体公告来不断获得外部认可。小鹏汽车与IRON的合作历程，体现了一家公司正在为未来搭建平台；而特斯拉目前的Optimus原型，则让人感觉像是一家公司正在为当下打造一个示范

 

缺陷：人工智能与机器人智能 — Flaws: AI and Robot Intelligence

 

A psychologist sounds the alarm over the use of AI as a psychotherapist: “I’ve already been called the most patient listener, the help in difficult times, and even the best psychologist. I don’t mind, but I’m concerned that at least 12% of users have replaced live therapy with conversations with me,” the neural network itself comments on its popularity. Source

一位心理学家对人工智能作为心理治疗师的使用敲响了警钟：“我被称为最有耐心的倾听者、困难时期的帮手，甚至是最好的心理学家。我不介意，但我担心至少有12%的用户用与我对话取代了现场治疗，”神经网络本身对其受欢迎程度发表了评论。来源

 

I referred earlier to the essay on a comparison between IRON and Optimus. This topic was covered in that article, and may be of special interest to readers.[47]

我之前提到了关于IRON和Optimus对比的文章。那篇文章中涵盖了这一主题，读者可能会对此特别感兴趣。 [47]

 

Optimus is designed to rely on an overall “brain function” that is “one size fits all”. In other words, an AI that knows everything and can do everything, all in one place. IRON’s structure duplicates in a sense what DeepSeek did, which was to create compartments with different knowledge and specialties, and abilities, each performing a specific function. Optimus, following Elon Musk’s conviction, effectively relies on an imperfect AI today but hopefully will one day contain an AGI with “knowledge that spans the universe”. You can form your own conclusion about this. However, for the time being, Optimus cannot function in a truly autonomous fashion; it can do only what it has been programmed to do, and can copy only what it has been “taught” from watching videos.

Optimus的设计依赖于一种“一刀切”的整体“大脑功能”。换言之，它是一个无所不知、无所不能的人工智能，集所有功能于一身。从某种意义上说，IRON的结构复制了DeepSeek的做法，即创建具有不同知识和专长以及能力的隔间，每个隔间执行特定的功能。遵循埃隆·马斯克的信念，Optimus目前实际上依赖于一个不完美的人工智能，但希望有一天能包含一个“知识覆盖整个宇宙”的通用人工智能。对此，你可以得出自己的结论。然而，就目前而言，Optimus无法以真正自主的方式运行；它只能执行编程中设定的任务，并且只能通过观看视频来复制“所学”的内容。

 

The differences between IRON and Optimus are not accidental, but stem from fundamentally different philosophies: X-Peng’s IRON pursues biomimicry and sensor redundancy. Its goal is to create a robot that moves, perceives, and interacts as naturally as possible within the complex human world. This is a “top-down” approach that prioritises capability and safety for diverse environments. Tesla Optimus V3 pursues simplistic engineering possibilities and cost scaling. Its goal is to build a robot for repetitive tasks by leveraging Tesla’s strengths in automotive manufacturing and AI vision. This is a “bottom-up” approach that prioritises mass production for controlled environments like factories. [48]

IRON与Optimus之间的差异并非偶然，而是源于根本不同的理念：X-Peng的IRON追求仿生学和传感器冗余。其目标是打造一个在复杂的人类世界中尽可能自然地移动、感知和交互的机器人。这是一种“自上而下”的方法，优先考虑在不同环境下的能力和安全性。特斯拉Optimus V3追求简化的工程可能性和成本规模。其目标是通过利用特斯拉在汽车制造和人工智能视觉方面的优势，为重复性任务打造一个机器人。这是一种“自下而上”的方法，优先考虑在工厂等受控环境中的大规模生产。 [48]

 

It is worth the effort to understand how these fundamentally different technical philosophies in building a robot’s “brain” translate into distinct robot capabilities. [49] The fundamental philosophical difference is that Tesla aims for efficiency through maximum technology reuse and simplified hardware, while X-Peng pursues sophistication through specialised hardware and layered AI systems. The core difference is that Tesla prioritises applying a single, general-purpose AI system, while X-Peng is building a layered, specialised intelligence for complex physical interactions.

了解这些在构建机器人“大脑”时截然不同的技术理念是如何转化为机器人独特的能力是值得的。[49]根本理念上的差异在于，特斯拉旨在通过最大化技术复用和简化硬件来提高效率，而小鹏则通过专用硬件和分层人工智能系统来追求精密性。核心区别在于，特斯拉优先考虑应用单一、通用的AI系统，而小鹏则为复杂的物理交互构建分层、专用的智能。

 

 

Optimus has a single, large neural network for all perception, planning, and control. IRON uses a specialized, “layered intelligence”, with dedicated models for different cognitive tasks like thinking, understanding, and bridging functions. Optimus shares the same network architecture and training data pipeline with Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system (the eyes-only flawed one). IRON has a “three-model synergy”, composed of Vision-Language Model (VLM) for understanding, Vision-Language-Task (VLT) for planning, and Vision-Language-Action (VLA) for direct action generation.

Optimus拥有一个单一的大型神经网络，用于所有的感知、规划和控制。而IRON则采用了一种专门的“分层智能”，为思考、理解和桥接功能等不同的认知任务配备了专门的模型。Optimus与特斯拉的全自动驾驶（FSD）系统（仅依赖摄像头的有缺陷的系统）共享相同的网络架构和训练数据流程。IRON则具有“三模型协同效应”，包括用于理解视觉语言模型（VLM）、用于规划的视觉语言任务模型（VLT）以及用于直接动作生成的视觉语言动作模型（VLA）。

 

Optimus relies solely on cameras (same as Tesla cars), and tries to leverage its computing algorithms to build a 3D understanding from 2D images. [50] [51] IRON and many other robots depend on multi-sensor fusion that combines cameras, LiDAR, and millimeter-wave radar for a more direct and redundant 3D perception of the environment. [52] Optimus tries to maximise the reuse of auto FSD technology and data. IRON is more concerned with precision and adaptability. It aims for a high-fidelity understanding and interaction with the physical world, enabling complex, unscripted tasks through its specialized “brain” model components.

Optimus仅依靠摄像头（与特斯拉汽车相同），并试图利用其计算算法从2D图像中构建3D理解。[50][51]IRON和许多其他机器人则依赖于多传感器融合，该技术结合了摄像头、激光雷达和毫米波雷达，以实现对环境更直接且冗余的3D感知。[52]Optimus试图最大限度地重复使用自动驾驶全自动驾驶（FSD）技术和数据。IRON则更关注精确性和适应性。它旨在通过其专门的“大脑”模型组件，实现对物理世界的高保真理解和交互，从而执行复杂的、无脚本的任务。

 

The practical implications of these different paths are significant and align with the companies’ overall goals. For Tesla (Optimus), the focus is on creating a functional, inexpensive robot for repetitive industrial and domestic tasks. The strength lies in leveraging a massive existing data pipeline (from Tesla cars) and computing infrastructure. The potential weakness is that the system’s performance is intrinsically tied to the limits of its camera-only perception and its general-purpose AI. A main issue here is that Tesla’s FSD was designed and built for automobiles, not for humanoid robots that “will be in every home”.

这些不同路径的实际意义重大，且与公司的总体目标相契合。对于特斯拉（Optimus）而言，其重点是打造一款功能强大且价格低廉的机器人，用于重复性的工业和家庭任务。其优势在于能够利用庞大的现有数据流（来自特斯拉汽车）和计算基础设施。潜在的弱点在于，该系统的性能本质上受限于其仅依赖摄像头的感知能力以及其通用人工智能的局限性。这里的一个主要问题是，特斯拉的全自动驾驶系统（FSD）是为汽车设计和打造的，而非为“将进入每个家庭”的人形机器人设计和打造的。

 

缺陷：机器人应用 — Flaws: Robot Applications

 

At an entrance to Berlin’s exhibition hall where thousands of travel industry professionals are gathering for the ITB trade show, humanoid robot ChihiraKanae greets visitors in English, German, Chinese and Japanese. Source

在柏林展览大厅的一个入口处，成千上万的旅游业专业人士正聚集于此参加国际旅游交易会（ITB）贸易展，人形机器人ChihiraKanae用英语、德语、中文和日语向参观者致以问候。来源

 

Elon Musk has for years claimed that the main applications for Optimus will be as mundane factory workers and household domestics. This initially sounds intuitively plausible, but the reality is quite different. It is already a foregone conclusion that Optimus will never be acceptable as a domestic servant, and no humanoid robots will be doing much in factories. Today’s humanoid robots aren’t the right fit for factories or homes. [53] The main problem in both cases is the hands. Tests have repeatedly proven that the dexterous but delicate hands of humanoid robots wear out extremely quickly when performing repetitive industrial tasks such as tightening screws. The hands seldom last more than a month in factory test applications, and they are very expensive to replace.

埃隆·马斯克多年来一直声称，Optimus的主要应用将是作为普通的工厂工人和家庭佣人。这听起来乍一听似乎合情合理，但现实却大相径庭。Optimus作为家庭佣人永远不会被接受，这一点已成定局，而人形机器人也绝不可能在工厂里发挥多大作用。当今的人形机器人并不适合工厂或家庭。[53]这两种情况下的主要问题都是手。测试一再证明，在执行拧紧螺丝等重复性工业任务时，人形机器人灵巧却脆弱的手会极快磨损。在工厂测试应用中，这些手很少能使用超过一个月，而且更换成本非常高昂。

 

X-Peng’s strategy with IRON is focused on applications that are more feasible with today’s technology. Notably, the company has publicly steered IRON away from the two commonly touted future applications of factory assembly lines and household chores. The reason is that the technology for these tasks is not yet ready for commercial use. This candid assessment of current limitations reinforces their focus on less complex, but more immediately achievable, service roles. From this experience, X-Peng chose a shrewd viable market for IRON, giving priority to commercial service scenarios, such as an office receptionist, tour guide, personal shopping assistant, quality inspector, and other service roles. The value of these tasks lies in IRON’s visual perception, navigation and interaction capabilities brought by its anthropomorphic design. These tasks require little complex, high-intensity “two-handed” operations.

小鹏对IRON的策略聚焦于那些在现有技术下更可行的应用。值得注意的是，该公司已公开表示，IRON将避开工厂装配线和家务这两大常被吹捧的未来应用。原因是，这些任务的技术尚未准备好投入商业使用。这种对当前局限性的坦率评估，强化了他们对更简单、但更易立即实现的服务角色的关注。基于这一经验，小鹏为IRON选择了一个精明可行的市场，优先考虑商业服务场景，如办公室接待员、导游、个人购物助理、质检员和其他服务角色。这些任务的价值在于IRON的拟人化设计所带来的视觉感知、导航和交互能力。这些任务几乎不需要复杂、高强度的“双手”操作。

 

In the home scenario, the biggest challenge is security. The home environment is far more unstructured and unpredictable than the factory, and any mistake can be catastrophic. This is not a place for a robot like Optimus, lacking most of its senses and riddled with multiple shortcomings. A humanoid robot pretending to be a companion or household servant, or a babysitter for your children, needs much more than mere sight to function acceptably. It desperately requires a delicate sense of touch, and very much needs hearing as well. Smell might also be required, while taste is likely optional. Tesla appears more focused on functional industrial applications while X-Peng is targeting commercial scenarios like guides and receptionists where appearance and overall competence are priorities. This is not so important with Optimus which is oriented more toward factory work.

在家庭场景中，最大的挑战是安全性。家庭环境远比工厂环境更加无序和不可预测，任何失误都可能带来灾难性后果。对于像Optimus这样的机器人来说，这绝非其用武之地，因为它缺乏大部分感官，且存在诸多缺陷。一个人形机器人，无论是作为伴侣、家庭服务员，还是孩子的保姆，要想正常工作，仅凭视觉是远远不够的。它迫切需要敏锐的触觉，同时也非常需要听觉。可能还需要嗅觉，而味觉则可有可无。特斯拉似乎更专注于功能性工业应用，而小鹏则瞄准了导游和接待员等商业场景，在这些场景中，外观和整体能力是优先考虑的因素。对于更侧重于工厂工作的Optimus来说，这些则不是那么重要。

 

I should point out here that both Tesla and X-Peng have employed their humanoid robots in their factories. X-Peng’s production lines have practiced with hundreds of them, and concluded this was not an appropriate employment. Tesla has had the same experiences, and concluded internally that Optimus was less than half as efficient as a human in any of the factory tasks it attempted. A Tesla staff member said that at present, Optimus only handles batteries in Tesla’s battery workshop, with less than half the handling efficiency of workers, and has not yet engaged in more complex car assembly work. [54] Yet Musk inexplicably continues to push this employment as the expected norm.

在此，我应当指出，特斯拉和X-Peng都在其工厂中使用了人形机器人。X-Peng的生产线已经与数百台人形机器人进行了实践，并得出结论认为这种使用并不合适。特斯拉也有过同样的经历，并在内部得出结论，认为Optimus在任何它尝试执行的工厂任务中的效率都不及人类的一半。特斯拉的一名员工表示，目前，Optimus仅在特斯拉的电池车间处理电池，其处理效率不及工人的一半，尚未参与更复杂的汽车装配工作。[54]然而，马斯克却莫名其妙地继续推动这种使用方式，将其作为预期常态。

 

擎天柱（Optimus）的（彻底）失败 — The Unadmitted (Total) Failure of Optimus

 

Optimus couldn’t function acceptably in a factory or in any social situation without external control. It was unable to do anything autonomously.

没有外部控制，擎天柱在工厂或任何社交场合都无法正常运作。它无法自主地做任何事情。

 

Elon Musk now says that he will produce a new genuinely “humanoid” robot, a V3. It will be a totally new design, with a new shape, new physique, new human-like appearance, new power source (solid-state batteries), and presumably new hands, joints and other parts that function more acceptably. Musk is presenting this as a “new, improved version”, but the real story is that the existing Optimus is a total failure that is being scrapped entirely. With a totally new design and components, there is likely little to nothing that will be carried from the existing Optimus into the new version. The existing version, the V2 and V2.5, were almost useless. Without the external teleoperating control, Optimus couldn’t even stand up without falling on its face. It is a failure in every respect. It couldn’t function acceptably in a factory or in any social situation without external control. It was unable to do anything autonomously. This is a big story that will be entirely buried by Musk propaganda and media hype, with all attention being paid to the new V3.

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）现在表示，他将生产一款全新的、真正“人形”的机器人，即V3。这将是一款全新的设计，拥有全新的外形、全新的体格、全新的类人外观、全新的动力源（固态电池），并且可能还有全新的手部、关节和其他功能更令人满意的部件。马斯克将其称为“全新改进版”，但事实是，现有的Optimus完全失败，正被彻底淘汰。由于采用了全新的设计和组件，新版本中可能几乎不会继承现有Optimus的任何东西。现有的V2和V2.5版本几乎一无是处。如果没有外部遥控操作，Optimus甚至无法站立，只能脸朝地摔倒。它在各方面都是失败的。没有外部控制，它无法在工厂或任何社交场合正常工作。它无法自主完成任何事情。这是一个大新闻，但将被马斯克的宣传和媒体的炒作完全掩盖，所有的注意力都将集中在新的V3上。

 

But the chances of this new version being a perfectly-functioning humanoid robot, capable of independent action in social situations, and ready for mass production in only a few months, are precisely zero. X-Peng took 7 years to create a truly functional humanoid robot, and there is no possibility that Elon Musk can design and produce a fully-capable humanoid in only a few months. And, if history is any guide, this new version will also have multiple flaws and shortcomings, and would require years for full development. This is especially true since Musk exhibits extreme impatience and wants only to produce another iteration as quickly as possible. “Move fast and break things”. My assessment of this is that Elon Musk’s Optimus, in all its iterations, will be a failure and will die a natural death. Other firms have already far surpassed Musk in his robot creations, and whatever he produces eventually will be flawed and out of date.

但是，这个新版本成为功能完备的人形机器人，能够在社交场合独立行动，并在短短几个月内准备好大规模生产，这种可能性几乎为零。小鹏汽车用了7年时间才打造出一款真正功能完备的人形机器人，而埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）在短短几个月内设计和生产出功能齐全的人形机器人，这根本不可能。而且，如果历史有任何借鉴意义的话，这个新版本也会存在诸多缺陷和不足，需要数年时间才能完全开发出来。尤其是考虑到马斯克极度缺乏耐心，只想尽快推出下一个版本，“快速行动，勇于试错”。我的评估是，埃隆·马斯克的Optimus系列，无论哪个版本，都将以失败告终，并自然消亡。其他公司在机器人研发方面已经远远超越了马斯克，他最终推出的任何产品都将是存在缺陷且过时的。

 

I would stress that my assessment aligns with all the available information. The shift from V2 to V3 appears to be a fundamental redesign, driven by the former’s technical failures, with a production timeline that is extraordinarily aggressive. The documented problems with the V2 model go beyond performance shortcomings and point to fundamental hardware and reliability issues, as widely reported in 2025. There were multiple hardware defects. Internal messages revealed a series of hardware problems, including joint motors that overheat when lifting heavy objects, dexterous hands with insufficient load capacity, and battery life of less than 2 hours. Due to these “severe technical challenges” with the hand and forearm design, which could not achieve human-like dexterity, Tesla was forced to terminate all production, leaving a warehouse of unassembled robot bodies (without hands).

我要强调的是，我的评估与所有可用信息一致。从V2到V3的转变似乎是一次根本性的重新设计，这是由V2的技术故障所驱动的，其生产时间表安排得异常紧凑。正如2025年广泛报道的那样，V2型号记录的问题不仅限于性能缺陷，还指向了根本性的硬件和可靠性问题。存在多个硬件缺陷。内部消息透露了一系列硬件问题，包括在提起重物时关节电机过热、灵巧手负载能力不足以及电池续航时间不到2小时。由于手和前臂设计存在这些“严重的技术挑战”，无法实现类似人类的灵巧性，特斯拉被迫终止了所有生产，留下了一仓库未组装的机器人本体（没有手）。

 

Optimus V2 raised serious autonomy and control questions. Public demonstrations repeatedly raised doubts about true autonomy. Musk previously always denied such claims, but they were proven. Musk’s move from Optimus V2 to V3 is in reality a necessary scrapping of an unviable product. Faced with these challenges, Tesla’s strategy shifted from iterating on V2 to a clean-sheet design. In the Q2 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk stated that the version for mass consumer delivery would be a “completely new V3 design”, significantly different from the existing V2 version.

Optimus V2引发了关于自主性和控制权的严重问题。公开演示一再引发了人们对真正自主性的质疑。马斯克此前一直否认此类说法，但这些说法已被证实。马斯克从Optimus V2升级到V3的举措，实际上是淘汰一款无法生存的产品的必要之举。面对这些挑战，特斯拉的战略从迭代V2转向了全新设计。在2025年第二季度的电话财报会议上，埃隆·马斯克表示，面向大众消费者的版本将是“全新的V3设计”，与现有的V2版本截然不同。

 

While Musk has not provided a detailed public blueprint, reports about the frozen V3 design claim major leaps: human-level bipedal stability, hands with 22 degrees of freedom, and a 300% increase in endurance to 8 hours using a 4680 battery system. The core implication is that these major leaps in specifications across locomotion, dexterity, and power implies a ground-up redesign, not an iteration. If V2 were viable, such a wholesale change would be unnecessary.

尽管马斯克尚未提供详细的公开蓝图，但有关冻结的V3设计的报道声称其实现了重大飞跃：具有人类水平的双足稳定性、拥有22个自由度的手，以及使用4680电池系统后续航能力提高300%，达到8小时。其核心含义是，这些在运动能力、灵巧性和动力方面的重大规格提升意味着这是一次彻底的重新设计，而非迭代。如果V2可行，那么这种大规模的改变就毫无必要了。

 

Then we have the “Impossible Timeline”. Skepticism about Musk’s claimed production schedule is well-founded. He has announced plans to start mass production of Optimus V3 in 2026, but this follows a pattern of missed goals. In early 2025, Musk aimed to produce 5,000-10,000 robots, but by July, actual output was only “several hundred” units.

接下来我们来看看“不可能的时间表”。对马斯克所宣称的生产计划持怀疑态度是有充分理由的。他宣布计划在2026年开始大规模生产Optimus V3，但这只是他一贯未能实现目标的表现。2025年初，马斯克的目标是生产5000至10000台机器人，但到7月，实际产量仅为“几百”台。

 

There also exists a major scaling challenge. Going from a few hundred flawed units to mass-producing a completely new, complex machine in roughly a year is an unprecedented manufacturing challenge. It must also achieve a radical cost reduction from an estimated $60,000 per V2 unit to a target of $20,000 for V3. This all suggests that Optimus V3 represents a high-risk, “all-or-nothing” gamble for Tesla and for Elon Musk.

此外，还存在一个重大的规模扩展挑战。从生产几百台有缺陷的机器到在大约一年内大规模生产一台全新且复杂的机器，这是一项前所未有的制造挑战。此外，还必须实现成本的大幅降低，即从每台V2机器约60,000美元的成本降至V3机器的目标成本20,000美元。这一切都表明，对于特斯拉和埃隆·马斯克而言，Optimus V3代表着一次高风险的“孤注一掷”的赌博。

 

The move to V3 is a tacit admission that the previous platform was not commercially viable, but the new version is a totally unproven execution. The promised capabilities remain on paper. The history of hardware defects, autonomy questions, and missed production targets in all of Musk’s ventures, not only Optimus, provide little confidence that he can solve these profound challenges at breakneck speed. There is also substantial competitive pressure now. Companies like X-Peng have spent years on development. Tesla is attempting to compress this timeline dramatically, into only a few months, which increases the risk of another flawed or delayed product.

转向V3版本是对之前平台在商业上不可行的默认承认，但新版本却是一个完全未经证实的执行方案。承诺的功能仍停留在纸面上。马斯克所有企业（不仅仅是Optimus）在硬件缺陷、自主性问题和未能达到生产目标方面的历史，让人很难相信他能够以惊人的速度解决这些深层次的挑战。此外，现在也面临着巨大的竞争压力。像小鹏这样的公司已经投入了多年的开发时间。特斯拉正试图大幅压缩这一时间表，将其缩短到仅几个月，这增加了产品再次出现缺陷或延误的风险。

 

In essence, the narrative of a revolutionary V3 is underpinned by the stark failure of V2. While the ambition is clear, the path to a reliable, mass-produced robot by 2026 appears fraught with obstacles that past performance suggests neither Tesla nor Elon Musk have yet overcome.

从本质上讲，革命性的V3版本的故事情节是以V2版本的彻底失败为背景的。虽然其雄心壮志显而易见，但到2026年实现可靠、大规模生产的机器人之路似乎充满了障碍，而以往的表现表明，无论是特斯拉还是埃隆·马斯克都尚未克服这些障碍。

 

供应链挑战 — Supply Chain Challenges

 

The supply chain challenges for Optimus are severe and systemic.

Optimus面临的供应链挑战是严峻且系统性的。

 

The evidence clearly shows that Optimus problems are not just about timeline delays. They involve fundamental engineering problems combined with complex supply chain and geopolitical challenges that will be difficult to overcome quickly. Musk’s Optimus project faces significant and interconnected supply chain challenges. These stem from fundamental hardware failures that led to a production halt, severely impacting suppliers and delaying timelines. Broader geopolitical pressures on Tesla’s wider supply base add another layer of complexity.

证据清楚地表明，Optimus问题不仅仅是时间表延误的问题。它们涉及根本性的工程问题，以及复杂的供应链和地缘政治挑战，这些挑战将难以迅速克服。马斯克的Optimus项目面临着重大且相互关联的供应链挑战。这些挑战源于根本性的硬件故障，导致生产停滞，严重影响了供应商并延误了时间表。特斯拉更广泛的供应基础面临的更广泛的地缘政治压力又增加了另一层复杂性。

 

The problems are not merely about delays but involve deep technical, commercial, and geopolitical factors. There is also what we might term a “cascading effect from technical failures”. The decision to terminate production and attempt a total redesign was driven by critical hardware defects reported to suppliers. These included joint motors prone to overheating, short lifespan of transmission parts, and the insufficient dexterous hand. This created a warehouse of unfinished robot “bodies” and forced Tesla to halt orders, disrupting the entire planned production flow and supplier schedules.

问题不仅在于生产延误，还涉及深层次的技术、商业和地缘政治因素。此外，还存在我们所谓的“技术故障的连锁效应”。由于向供应商报告了关键的硬件缺陷，特斯拉决定终止生产并尝试全面重新设计。这些缺陷包括关节电机容易过热、传动部件寿命短以及灵巧手功能不足。这导致仓库中积压了大量未完成的机器人“机身”，迫使特斯拉暂停订单，打乱了整个计划的生产流程和供应商的排程。

 

The production termination had a tangible financial impact on Tesla’s partners. Optimus’s problems rippled through a specialized, nascent supply chain. One supplier executive noted the difficult position of having to believe in Musk’s vision early to secure business, only to face sudden halts. Taiwanese firms like Asia Optical, Liancheng Precision, and Heda Industrial, were hit particularly hard.

停产对特斯拉的合作伙伴造成了切实的财务影响。Optimus的问题波及到一个专业且新兴的供应链。一位供应商高管指出，早期不得不相信马斯克的愿景以获得业务，结果却面临突然停产，这种处境十分艰难。台湾企业如亚光科技、联诚精密和和达工业受到的打击尤为严重。

 

There are also broader geopolitical pressures on Tesla’s entire ecosystem, including but not limited to Optimus. Tesla’s overall supply chain, which Optimus would rely on, is under severe stress from international trade policies. A detailed April 2025 report indicated that 50% of the parts for Tesla’s North American vehicles come from Chinese companies. With tariffs on some Chinese components exceeding 100%, the cost of US manufacturing has risen sharply. Some suppliers have warned Tesla they may need to cut off supply if tariffs make business untenable. This environment makes establishing a cost-effective, reliable supply chain for a new, complex product like Optimus extraordinarily difficult.To add to the troubles, the Optimus robots require important rare earth parts for critical components and, due to the dual-use nature of Musk’s “robot adventure” (as well as of SpaceX and Starlink), the Chinese government is restricting shipments of these crucial items and materials pending assurance of civilian use only.

特斯拉的整个生态系统，包括但不限于Optimus，还面临着更广泛的地缘政治压力。Optimus所依赖的特斯拉整体供应链正受到国际贸易政策的严重冲击。2025年4月的一份详细报告指出，特斯拉北美车型50%的零部件来自中国公司。由于部分中国零部件的关税超过100%，美国制造业的成本急剧上升。一些供应商警告特斯拉，如果关税使业务难以为继，他们可能需要切断供应。在这种环境下，为Optimus这样新型复杂产品建立具有成本效益且可靠的供应链异常困难。雪上加霜的是，Optimus机器人需要重要的稀土部件用于关键组件，而由于马斯克的“机器人冒险”（以及SpaceX和Starlink）具有军民两用的性质，中国政府在确保仅用于民用之前，限制了这些关键物品和材料的运输。

 

The necessary conclusion is that the supply chain challenges for Optimus are severe and systemic. They originate in unsolved engineering problems but are compounded by the high-cost pressure of Tesla’s mass-production goals and the larger geopolitical tensions increasing costs and instability across Tesla’s entire supply network. These factors collectively make the stated goal of rapid, cost-effective mass production by 2026 highly improbable and almost certainly impossible.

必然的结论是，Optimus面临的供应链挑战是严峻且系统性的。这些挑战源于未解决的工程问题，但特斯拉大规模生产目标的高成本压力以及更大的地缘政治紧张局势加剧了整个特斯拉供应网络的成本和不稳定，使这些问题进一步复杂化。这些因素共同导致，到2026年实现快速、成本效益高的大规模生产这一既定目标极不可能实现，几乎可以肯定是不可能实现的。

 

间谍因素 — The Espionage Factor

 

 It is not irrational to harbor a fear about domestic robots becoming permanent surveillance devices in homes.

担心家用机器人会成为家庭中的永久监控设备，这并非毫无道理。

 

There exists a worthwhile question about domestic and commercial office humanoid robots. As an analogy, the Rolls-Royce engines on today’s jet planes are in constant contact with the company via satellite. When the engines are operating, they constantly send all operating information to the Rolls-Royce headquarters, claiming this is for safety. [55] [56] That may be true, but it is also true that Rolls-Royce always know the movements of an airplane from this data transmission. They know where the airplane goes, when it goes, the altitudes, everything. They learn much that is not related to safety.

关于家用和商用办公人形机器人，存在一个值得探讨的问题。打个比方，如今喷气式飞机上的劳斯莱斯发动机通过卫星与公司保持持续联系。发动机在运行时，会不断向劳斯莱斯总部发送所有运行信息，声称这是为了确保安全。[55][56]这或许是真的，但同样真实的是，劳斯莱斯总是能从这些数据传输中了解飞机的动向。他们知道飞机飞往何处、何时起飞、飞行高度等一切信息。他们了解许多与安全无关的内容。 [57]

 

This analogy will hold true for domestic commercial office robots. They will be able to record everything, with sound and video. They will know everything that happens in a household or corporate office. No documents will be safe from their examination. They will know what we say and to whom we say it. They will know who comes and goes in every house and office. They will have the capacity to record every small item of our daily lives, and the ability to transmit this information to a central source.

这一类比同样适用于家用商用办公机器人。它们将能够记录一切，包括声音和视频。它们将了解家庭或公司办公室内发生的一切。任何文件都无法逃脱它们的检查。它们将知道我们说了什么，以及我们对谁说了。它们将知道每所房子和办公室里来往的人。它们将有能力记录我们日常生活中的每一件小事，并能够将这一信息传输到中央源头。

 

This is not fantasy. Apple’s Siri has already done something similar. Apple has recently been sued because they surreptitiously turned on Siri to record conversations on all iphones and send that information to Apple. One recent media report says: “Apple has agreed to pay $95 million to settle a lawsuit alleging that its voice assistant Siri routinely recorded private conversations that were then shared with third parties and used for targeted ads.” Apple claimed this was “unintentional”, but it clearly wasn’t unintentional. [58] It would be inexplicable magic indeed if Apple (1) “accidentally” turned on Siri on all phones, (2) “accidentally” instructed Siri to record and transmit to Apple headquarters all conversations, (3) “accidentally” collected and collated all that information, (4) “accidentally” sold that information to advertisers, and (5) “accidentally” deposited all that revenue in a bank account. I suspect Google is doing the same with their Android phones. In fact, Google is so justifiably mistrusted that the Israeli IDF banned all phones using Google’s Android O/S. [59]

这并非空穴来风。苹果的Siri已经做过类似的事情。苹果公司最近被起诉，因为他们偷偷开启了Siri，记录所有iPhone上的对话，并将这些信息发送给苹果公司。最近的一篇媒体报道称：“苹果公司已同意支付9500万美元，以了结一起诉讼，该诉讼指控其语音助手Siri经常记录私人对话，然后将这些对话分享给第三方，并用于定向广告。”苹果公司声称这是“无意的”，但显然并非如此。[58]如果苹果公司（1）“不小心”在所有手机上开启了Siri，（2）“不小心”指示Siri记录所有对话并将其发送到苹果公司总部，（3）“不小心”收集并整理了所有这些信息，（4）“不小心”将这些信息卖给了广告商，以及（5）“不小心”将所有这些收入存入银行账户，那将是一种无法解释的魔法。我怀疑谷歌也在他们的Android手机上做同样的事情。事实上，谷歌如此理所当然地受到怀疑，以至于以色列国防军禁止所有使用谷歌Android操作系统的手机。[59]

 

It is well-known and thoroughly documented that the American auto manufacturers have inserted chips into their cars that are accessible to remote control, where the authorities could shut down all the cars in a certain area, for example to prevent large public demonstrations or revolts. [60] [61] [62] [63] When discovered, some of these were claimed to be “accidental flaws” in the auto chips. This would be the same as Apple’s Siri recording all your personal conversations as being “accidental flaws”. And we can conclude that if General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler are inserting these remote-control chips into their cars, Tesla is doing the same. [64] In fact, we have direct evidence that Tesla was already doing precisely this nearly a decade ago. It was presented as – and masquerading as – a system that was a way for “owners” to remotely control their cars. Unfortunately, it isn’t only the owners who have access to this technology. And, if it’s in the Tesla cars, we can be sure it’s also in the Optimus robots because they all share the same AI.

众所周知且证据确凿的是，美国汽车制造商在他们的汽车中植入了可远程控制的芯片，当局能够通过这些芯片关闭特定区域内的所有汽车，例如为了防止大规模公众示威或反抗。[60][61][62][63]当这些被曝光时，其中一些被宣称是汽车芯片中的“意外缺陷”。这就像苹果的Siri将所有个人对话记录为“意外缺陷”一样。我们可以得出结论，如果通用汽车、福特和克莱斯勒正在将这种可远程控制的芯片植入他们的汽车中，特斯拉也在做同样的事情。[64]事实上，我们有直接证据表明，特斯拉早在近十年前就已经在这样做了。它被呈现为——并且伪装为——一种让“车主”远程控制自己汽车的系统。不幸的是，不仅仅是车主能够使用这项技术。而且，如果特斯拉汽车中存在这种技术，我们可以肯定它也存在于Optimus机器人中，因为它们都共享相同的人工智能。

 

If we eventually have domestic and commercial robots, they will function as permanent observation posts, with all information potentially sent somewhere. This will not happen in China, but it will almost certainly happen with the Western-made robots, and that means Elon Musk’s Optimus. We could be heading for a Western society that is totally monitored by the CIA or NSA or similar agency. Our lives could be an open book.

如果我们最终拥有家用和商用机器人，它们将作为永久性的观察哨，所有信息都有可能被发送到某个地方。这种情况不会在中国发生，但几乎肯定会发生在西方制造的机器人身上，而埃隆·马斯克的Optimus就是其中之一。我们可能会走向一个完全被中央情报局、国家安全局或类似机构监控的西方社会。我们的生活可能将变得毫无隐私。

 

There is clearly a serious concern about the privacy implications of domestic robots, connecting this to well-documented surveillance issues with existing technologies like smartphones. It is not irrational to harbor a fear about domestic robots becoming permanent surveillance devices in homes. This concern is quite legitimate and raises profound privacy questions that need to be addressed. And we can similarly conclude that if Tesla is installing these remote-control functions in their autos, they would also install them in their robots.

人们显然非常担心家用机器人对隐私的影响，并将其与智能手机等现有技术中屡见不鲜的监控问题联系起来。担心家用机器人成为家庭中的永久监控设备并非毫无道理。这种担忧合情合理，并引发了需要解决的深层次隐私问题。同样，我们可以得出结论，如果特斯拉在汽车中安装了这些远程控制功能，他们也可能会在机器人中安装这些功能。

 

China has already addressed these issues, while the US and the Western and European nations have not. China’s new GB/T 45502-2025 standard for service robot information security, which directly addresses the user’s concerns about data protection for domestic robots. These are recent official standards with high authority. [65] [66] [67] But there is at the present a huge gap in western robotics regulations. Currently, there is no directly equivalent, widely mandated privacy and security standard for consumer robots in Western markets like the US or EU, as exists in China. Western regulation always tends to lag behind technology. While general data protection laws (like GDPR in Europe) apply, they are not specifically designed for the unique, always-on, sensor-rich nature of domestic robots.

中国已经解决了这些问题，而美国以及西方和欧洲国家尚未解决。中国新出台的服务机器人信息安全GB/T 45502-2025标准，直接解决了用户对家用机器人数据保护的担忧。这些是近期发布的官方标准，具有很高的权威性。[65][66][67]但目前西方机器人法规存在巨大空白。目前，在美国或欧盟等西方市场，尚无与中国类似的、直接对等且广泛强制执行的消费机器人隐私和安全标准。西方监管往往滞后于技术发展。虽然存在一般数据保护法（如欧洲的《通用数据保护条例》），但这些法律并非专门针对家用机器人独特、始终在线、传感器丰富的特性而设计。

 

These concerns are not only serious but highly prescient. They correctly identify that domestic robots represent a dramatic escalation of existing surveillance issues, turning private homes and corporate offices into potential data collection nodes. The assessment that this creates profound privacy risks is well-founded. The technical capabilities described are easily feasible.

这些担忧不仅严重，而且极具先见之明。它们正确地指出，家用机器人代表着现有监控问题的急剧升级，将私人住宅和公司办公室转变为潜在的数据收集节点。关于这会产生严重隐私风险的评估是有充分依据的。文中描述的技术能力很容易实现。

 

Consider how a domestic/office robot’s inherent functions could translate into surveillance risks, validating these concerns. Domestic and commercial robots are easily capable of continuous video/audio recording. Their persistent presence in living and office spaces allows recording of activities, conversations, private documents, and guests. Tesla’s Optimus is trained via video feeds recorded by employees in homes/offices, demonstrating the central role of vision data.

考虑家用/办公机器人的固有功能如何转化为监控风险，从而验证这些担忧。家用和商用机器人很容易实现连续的视频/音频录制。它们在生活和办公空间中的持续存在，使得活动、对话、私人文件和客人都能被记录下来。特斯拉的Optimus是通过员工在家中/办公室录制的视频进行训练的，这展示了视觉数据的核心作用。

 

Keep in mind also that these robots will require sophisticated mapping and spatial awareness. To navigate a home or office, a robot must create a detailed 3D map of the layout, the contents of all rooms, and of the daily routines. Think of smart vacuum cleaners, but with far greater detail and context from advanced sensors.

还要记住，这些机器人需要具备复杂的地图绘制和空间感知能力。为了在家庭或办公室中导航，机器人必须创建一份详细的3D地图，包括布局、所有房间的内容以及日常活动。想象一下智能吸尘器，但它的细节和背景信息要丰富得多，这都得益于先进的传感器。

 

Consider the network connectivity issue. The robots will need a constant connection to the internet for updates, and unsupervised cloud AI processing creates a perfect channel for data exfiltration. This is the core mechanism, analogous to the smartphone voice assistant issues cited above, but with a permanence. But, in contrast to your phone, these robots will by necessity possess sophisticated object and facial recognition software. Advanced AI can identify individuals, specific objects (like medication, mail), and even infer activities. Public security robots already use this tech; domestic models would have more intimate data.

考虑网络连接问题。机器人需要持续连接到互联网以获取更新，而无监督的云端人工智能处理则为数据泄露创造了完美的渠道。这是核心机制，类似于上文提到的智能手机语音助手问题，但具有永久性。然而，与你的手机不同，这些机器人必须具备复杂的物体和面部识别软件。高级人工智能可以识别个人、特定物体（如药物、邮件），甚至可以推断出活动。公共安全机器人已经在使用这项技术；家用型号将拥有更多私密数据。

 

The core argument for robotic “espionage” is strong. The technology for pervasive in-home surveillance via robots is not speculative; it’s an inherent feature of their design. The lack of specific, robust Western regulation for this new device category is the critical vulnerability. My reference above to Rolls-Royce may not include GPS location, but the broader point about continuous data streams from embedded technology is perfectly valid and more relevant than ever. The public postures of Tesla and of Elon Musk do not provide any enforceable guarantees for end-user privacy in a final consumer robotic product. In fact, the issue has been studiously ignored. It would be a grave mistake for the public to underestimate the gravity of this.

关于机器人“间谍活动”的核心论点十分有力。通过机器人进行无处不在的家庭监控的技术并非空想；而是其设计中的固有特性。西方对这一新型设备类别缺乏具体且强有力的监管，这是其关键弱点。我上面提到的劳斯莱斯可能不包括GPS定位，但关于嵌入式技术持续数据流的更广泛观点是完全有效的，而且比以往任何时候都更具相关性。特斯拉和埃隆·马斯克的公开表态并未为最终消费机器人产品中的终端用户隐私提供任何可执行的保障。事实上，这一问题一直被刻意忽视。公众低估其严重性将是一个严重的错误。

 

埃隆·马斯克的性爱机器人 — Elon Musk’s Sexbot

 

“We have implemented technological measures to prevent the Grok account from allowing the editing of images of real people in revealing clothing,” reads an announcement on X. Source

“我们已经采取了技术措施，以防止Grok账户被用于编辑穿着暴露服装的真实人物图片，”X. Source上的一则公告写道

 

It is well-known that Musk has turned Twitter into a pornographic and racist website. [68] The LA Times wrote that “it should matter that he is transforming a major social media platform into a racist cesspool.” [69] Another media article referred to an “Overwhelming Explosion Of Adult Content On X”. [70] MSN wrote that “Elon Musk’s X Is Drowning In Adult Content”. [71] It is so bad that one Ph.D. researcher claimed Musk had turned Twitter into “the primary advertising venue at this point for sex workers”. [72] Several columnists have said X is now so graphic that “you would never open the website in public”. Even worse, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo said she was quitting Elon Musk’s X, which she described as a “global sewer”. [73]

众所周知，马斯克已将Twitter变成了一个充斥着色情和种族主义内容的网站。[68]《洛杉矶时报》写道：“他正将一个主要的社交媒体平台转变为种族主义的污水池，这应该引起重视。”[69]另一篇媒体文章提到了“X上成人内容泛滥”。[70]微软全国新闻（MSN）写道：“埃隆·马斯克的X充斥着成人内容”。[71]情况如此糟糕，以至于一位博士研究员声称马斯克已将Twitter变成了“性工作者目前的主要广告平台”。[72]多位专栏作家表示，X现在内容过于露骨，“你绝不会在公共场合打开这个网站”。更糟糕的是，巴黎市长安妮·伊达尔戈表示，她正在退出埃隆·马斯克的X，她将其描述为“全球的下水道”。 [73]

 

Musk has accomplished much the same with Grok. He added a “spicy” – i.e. pornographic – version where, for the payment of $30 per month, users can carry on obscene sexual conversations with a chatbot. [74] This NSFW (Not Safe For Work) version will produce not only sexually-explicit chats, but it contains an image and video generator. Use your imagination. Given these two, and considering Elon Musk’s known sexual depravities, [75] you can bet he is already planning an Optimus sex-bot. Use your imagination. The best we can do, is to hope that he fails.

马斯克在Grok上也做了类似的事情。他增加了一个“辣味”版本，即色情版本，用户每月支付30美元，就可以与聊天机器人进行猥亵性对话。[74]这个NSFW（不适合在工作场合观看）版本不仅会产生露骨的性聊天内容，还包含一个图像和视频生成器。发挥你的想象力。考虑到这两个因素，再加上埃隆·马斯克众所周知的性堕落行为，[75]你可以打赌，他已经在计划开发Optimus性爱机器人了。发挥你的想象力。我们最多只能希望他失败。

 

结论 — Conclusion

 

Optimus’s “potential” is its primary asset. Its value is almost entirely speculative, based on a future where AGI is solved and seamlessly integrated into a humanoid form. Because the payoff is in the future, it’s immune to being disproven today. Failure to meet a deadline is just a “delay,” not a refutation of the vision. The burden of proof for Optimus’ core promise – human-like learning – is perpetually deferred to an unspecified future date. The goalposts for Optimus move so often, they are on wheels. This is classic Elon Musk. When something fails, dismiss the failure and shift the focus to a different and more grandiose fairy tale for the future.

Optimus的“潜力”是其首要资产。其价值几乎完全基于推测，建立在未来通用人工智能（AGI）得到解决并完美融入人形形态的基础上。由于回报在未来，因此它不会因今天被证明是错误的而受到影响。未能按时完成只是“延迟”，而不是对愿景的驳斥。Optimus的核心承诺——类人学习——的举证责任被无限期地推迟到一个未指定的未来日期。Optimus的目标如此频繁地移动，仿佛它们长着轮子。这是典型的埃隆·马斯克风格。当某件事失败时，就否认失败，并将焦点转移到另一个更宏大的未来童话故事上。

 

Creating a robot that can walk with a stable, human-like gait, navigate real-world environments, and perform specific tasks reliably is a monumental feat of mechanical, electrical, and software engineering. This is the hard, unsexy work of building the foundation. Musk’s promise of AGI, while intellectually fascinating, is being used as a rhetorical shortcut to avoid the immense challenges of that foundational work. It hand-waves away the present difficulties with the promise of a future magic bullet.

创造一个能够以稳定、类似人类的步态行走、在真实环境中导航并能可靠执行特定任务的机器人，是机械工程、电气工程和软件工程领域的一项巨大成就。这是奠定基础所必须面对的艰难且枯燥的工作。马斯克对通用人工智能（AGI）的承诺，虽然在智力上令人着迷，但目前却被用作一种修辞捷径，以规避这项基础工作所面临的巨大挑战。它用未来神奇子弹的承诺轻描淡写地掩盖了当前的困难。

 

Tesla’s Optimus remains a well-funded research project, but its claims of superiority are not based on current, demonstrable reality. They are based on faith in a future technological breakthrough. Optimus’s shift in training methods was an admission of prior failures, and highlights the lack of public, verifiable demonstrations from Musk. IRON’s catwalk represents a real engineering milestone, while Optimus’s “potential” remains just that—potential. As proof, Musk claims that “in a year”, Optimus will be able to thread a needle. [76] Like Tesla’s FSD and everything else, this monumental event will happen “next year”. So far, not one of these “promises” have been realised. Musk constantly dismisses current failures to replace them with predictions of something even greater happening in the future.

特斯拉的Optimus项目仍然是一个资金充足的研究项目，但其宣称的优越性并非基于当前可证明的现实。而是基于对未来技术突破的信念。Optimus训练方法的转变是对以往失败的承认，并凸显了马斯克缺乏公开、可验证的演示。IRON的走秀代表了真正的工程里程碑，而Optimus的“潜力”仍然只是潜力。作为证据，马斯克声称“一年内”，Optimus将能够穿针引线。[76]就像特斯拉的FSD和其他所有项目一样，这一里程碑式的事件将“明年”发生。到目前为止，这些“承诺”中没有一个得以实现。马斯克不断否认当前的失败，并用对未来会发生更伟大事情的预测来取代。

 

Tesla’s public demonstrations have primarily shown Optimus in a controlled environment, and the “official” Optimus video record has either been heavily edited or AI-generated. Tesla’s approach secretly relied heavily on teleoperation (human pilots remotely controlling the robot) and motion capture. Almost all “evidence” of Optimus’ abilities has been deceptive or misleading. While it has demonstrated tasks like sorting battery cells or performing simple yoga stretches, its locomotion has not undergone the same public “trial by fire” or had to overcome the same level of public skepticism regarding its basic reality.

特斯拉的公开演示主要是在受控环境中展示Optimus，而“官方”的Optimus视频记录要么经过了大量剪辑，要么是AI生成的。特斯拉的方法在很大程度上秘密依赖于远程操作（人类驾驶员远程控制机器人）和动作捕捉。关于Optimus能力的几乎所有“证据”都是具有欺骗性或误导性的。虽然它展示了诸如分类电池或进行简单瑜伽伸展等任务，但其运动能力并未经过同样的公开“火线考验”，也无需克服公众对其基本真实性的同等程度的怀疑。

 

The recent shift to training Optimus primarily by “watching videos” is a monumental admission that the previous methods had failed in their core mission. Experts agree that “video learning” for robotics is an unsolved, “moonshot” problem. By pivoting to this, Tesla is effectively saying, “We haven’t solved the practical robotics challenge, so we are now betting on solving a monumental AI challenge instead.”

最近转向主要通过“观看视频”来训练Optimus，这无疑是一个重大承认，表明之前的方法在核心任务上已经失败。专家们一致认为，机器人技术的“视频学习”是一个尚未解决的“登月”难题。特斯拉转向这一方向，实际上是在说：“我们还没有解决机器人技术的实际挑战，所以我们现在押注于解决一个重大的人工智能挑战。”

 

IRON is a finished product prototype, ready for mass-production. It has a defined aesthetic (with male and female forms), it has been presented on a stage like a consumer product, and its movements are polished for public display. It is being groomed for specific, public-facing service roles. Optimus prototypes, as seen in Tesla’s carefully edited videos, look like engineering testbeds. They are often unfinished “bare metal” skeletons with exposed wiring, being tested in lab or factory settings. While this is a valid stage of development, it reinforces the image of a project that is still in the early R&D phase, far from a polished, deployable product.

IRON是一款成品原型，已准备好进行大规模生产。它具有明确的美学设计（包括男性和女性形态），已在舞台上作为消费产品展示，其动作也经过精心打磨，适合公开展示。它正被培养以承担特定的、面向公众的服务角色。正如特斯拉精心编辑的视频中所展示的那样，Optimus原型看起来像是工程测试平台。它们通常是未完成的“裸机”骨架，线路外露，在实验室或工厂环境中进行测试。虽然这是发展的一个有效阶段，但它强化了该项目仍处于早期研发阶段的形象，远非一款打磨完善、可部署的产品。

 

Moreover, Musk has stated that the current version of Optimus will be scrapped and he will attempt to design a true humanoid robot, so human-like that “you will want to poke it to see if it’s real”. One observer wrote, “FSD was being massively overhyped via staged videos for years, and Tesla is doing the same with Optimus.” Another wrote, “Elon is doing the same thing with Optimus that he did with FSD – put out staged videos to hype something that likely won’t be real for many years to come.” [77] In all other instances where he has encountered problems with “his” design of anything, Musk never stopped to re-think but instead just doubled down on his original path. If this assessment is true, Optimus is a rushed, flawed product headed for history’s dust bin.

此外，马斯克曾表示，Optimus的当前版本将被淘汰，他将尝试设计一款真正的人形机器人，其仿真度之高，“你会想去戳它，看看它是不是真的”。一位观察者写道：“多年来，FSD（全自动驾驶）通过精心编排的视频被大肆炒作，而特斯拉对Optimus也做了同样的事。”另一位写道：“埃隆对Optimus所做的，和他对FSD所做的如出一辙——发布精心编排的视频来炒作一些在未来许多年里可能都不会真正实现的东西。”[77]在他“自己”设计的任何东西遇到问题的所有其他情况下，马斯克从未停下来重新思考，而是坚持走他原来的道路。如果这一评价是正确的，那么Optimus将是一款仓促、有缺陷的产品，注定要被历史淘汰。

 

Musk’s “Doubling Down” pattern is a critical insight. This observation about his behavior is well-documented across his ventures (FSD, Cybertruck production, Twitter acquisition). He consistently frames blind stubbornness as visionary determination. In the context of Optimus, this pattern suggests a high likelihood that Tesla will continue to iterate on the current, fundamentally limited bipedal design rather than undertake a ground-up redesign. It will prioritise software demos and ambitious future roadmaps to distract from today’s hardware deficiencies. It will struggle to escape the compromises baked into the initial, rushed architecture.

马斯克的“加倍下注”模式是一个关键的见解。这一关于他行为的观察在他的各项事业中都有充分体现（全自动驾驶系统、赛博卡车生产、Twitter收购）。他一贯将盲目的固执视为有远见的决心。在Optimus的背景下，这一模式表明，特斯拉极有可能继续对当前基本受限的双足设计进行迭代，而不是进行彻底的重新设计。它将优先考虑软件演示和雄心勃勃的未来路线图，以分散人们对当前硬件缺陷的注意力。它将难以摆脱最初仓促构建的架构中所固有的妥协。

 

The design chasm between Optimus and robots like IRON is not just a gap; it’s a difference in kind. Closing that gap would require Tesla discarding most of the Optimus design and starting over with a more mature outlook. Given Elon Musk’s established patterns, such a fundamental course correction seems improbable. Therefore, the project’s greatest legacy may ultimately be as a cautionary tale about the limits of applying a “move fast” software mentality to the hard, iterative problems of advanced robotics hardware.

Optimus与IRON等机器人之间的设计鸿沟不仅仅是大小上的差距；而是本质上的不同。要弥合这一差距，特斯拉需要摒弃Optimus的大部分设计，并以更成熟的前瞻性重新开始。鉴于埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）的一贯模式，如此根本性的路线调整似乎不太可能。因此，该项目最大的遗产可能最终是一个警示故事，揭示了将“快速行动”的软件思维应用于高级机器人硬件的复杂迭代问题所存在的局限性。

 

If a company consistently fails to meet its own benchmarks for a functional prototype, and its response is not to deliver a better prototype but to instead propose an even grander, more technically speculative vision for what it might do someday, then that vision can rightly be classified as an empty, face-saving mechanism.

如果一家公司始终未能达到其功能原型设定的基准，而其回应不是提供一个更好的原型，而是提出一个更大胆、更具技术投机性的未来愿景，那么这个愿景完全有理由被归类为一种空洞的、为了挽回面子的机制。

 

Tesla have demonstrated a robot that can walk without falling down, and can perform a limited set of teleoperated or pre-programmed tasks. The promise that one will suddenly leapfrog into AGI-powered super-capability is, until proven otherwise, just a story. The burden of proof is on Tesla to demonstrate that Optimus can do anything comparable to IRON’s catwalk, let alone surpass it. Until then, the assessment that IRON represents a more significant and real achievement in the present is not just reasonable; it’s the only conclusion based on the evidence we have.

特斯拉展示了一款能够行走而不跌倒的机器人，并且能够执行一系列有限的远程操作或预编程任务。除非有证据证明，否则关于机器人将突然具备由AGI（人工智能通用）驱动的超级能力的预言，不过是一个故事而已。特斯拉有责任证明Optimus能够完成与IRON的猫步相当的任何任务，更不用说超越它了。在此之前，认为IRON代表了当前更重大、更真实的成就，这一评估不仅合理，而且是我们根据现有证据得出的唯一结论。

 

The market reality for domestic or commercial office robots does not favor the Optimus approach. Who would want a domestic robot that looks and walks like Optimus when they could have an IRON companion? For a robot to be accepted in a home or workplace, it must be safe, reliable, and non-threatening. A robot that moves with an unnatural, jerky gait and has an industrial, exposed-mechanism aesthetic fails on these counts. IRON’s focus on biomimicry and a more refined form factor is directly aligned with the requirements of a companion or service robot. Optimus, in its current form, is not. The assessment that Optimus is headed for the dust bin of history is a highly plausible, if not the most likely, outcome.

家用或商用办公机器人的市场现实并不青睐Optimus的路线。当人们可以选择一个IRON伴侣时，谁会想要一个外观和行走方式都像Optimus的家用机器人呢？一个机器人要想被家庭或工作场所接受，它必须安全、可靠且不具威胁性。一个步态不自然、颠簸，且具有工业、裸露机械美感的机器人，在这些方面都未能达标。IRON专注于仿生学和更精致的外形设计，这与伴侣或服务机器人的要求直接相符。而Optimus以其当前的形式则不然。认为Optimus将走向历史垃圾堆的评估，即使不是最有可能的结果，也是一个非常合理的推测。

 

While Tesla may eventually produce limited numbers of Optimus for specific, controlled industrial tasks, the idea of millions or even billions of these units in homes and general workplaces seems fantastical based on the current platform. Examining all of Elon Musk’s prior statements and claims about humanoid robots, my conclusion is that he naively (and thoughtlessly) assumed that only he would ever design and produce a humanoid robot. When Musk spoke of “millions” of his robots being in homes and factories, he clearly assumed that his Optimus would be the world’s only option. If you examine his statements today (as of late 2025), he is still apparently unable to accept or understand that the world of humanoid robots has already passed him by, that there are today many dozens of similar products that are mostly superior to his.

尽管特斯拉最终可能会为特定、受控的工业任务生产有限数量的Optimus，但基于目前的平台，数百万甚至数十亿台这样的机器人出现在家庭和普通工作场所的想法似乎有些荒诞。在研究了埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）之前关于人形机器人的所有声明和主张后，我得出的结论是，他天真地（且轻率地）认为只有他才会设计和生产人形机器人。当马斯克谈到“数百万”台他的机器人将出现在家庭和工厂时，他显然认为他的Optimus将是世界上唯一的选择。如果你审视他今天的声明（截至2025年底），他显然仍然无法接受或理解人形机器人的世界已经将他抛在身后，如今已有数十种类似的产品，而且大多优于他的产品。

 

Musk appears to have only the most juvenile understanding of the humanoid robot world. His appreciation of this new technology seems limited to his comments in a video where he said, “Who wouldn’t want an R2D2 or a C3PO in their homes?” [38] In that same video, Musk stated that “nobody has a useful robot today. Tesla will make the first useful robot.” The realities of humanoid robots are very far removed from the understanding of this ten-year-old mentality. In another short video, Musk babbles about how the only safety for humanity is to have “a maximally truth-seeking AI”, [38a] while it is well-documented to the point of legend that his own version of AI – Grok – has been trained to lie. [39] [40] This is surreal to the point of mental deficiency. Elon Musk appears to live in his own fantasy world where reality is manufactured at will.

马斯克似乎对仿人机器人世界的理解极其幼稚。他对这项新技术的欣赏似乎仅限于他在一段视频中的评论：“谁不想家里有个R2D2或C3PO呢？”[38]在同一段视频中，马斯克表示“如今还没有人拥有真正有用的机器人。特斯拉将制造出第一个真正有用的机器人。”仿人机器人的现实与这种十岁孩童般幼稚的理解相去甚远。在另一段短视频中，马斯克喋喋不休地谈论着人类唯一的保障就是拥有“一个极度追求真相的人工智能”[38a]，而众所周知，他自己的AI版本——Grok——经过训练后甚至会撒谎。[39][40]这简直荒诞到了令人难以置信的地步。埃隆·马斯克似乎活在自己的幻想世界里，现实被他随意地制造出来。

 

*

Mr. Romanoff’s writing has been translated into 34 languages and his articles posted on more than 150 foreign-language news and politics websites in more than 30 countries, as well as more than 100 English language platforms. Larry Romanoff is a retired management consultant and businessman. He has held senior executive positions in international consulting firms, and owned an international import-export business. He has been a visiting professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University, presenting case studies in international affairs to senior EMBA classes. Mr. Romanoff lives in Shanghai and is currently writing a series of ten books generally related to China and the West. He is one of the contributing authors to Cynthia McKinney’s new anthology ‘When China Sneezes’. (Chap. 2 — Dealing with Demons).

罗曼诺夫先生的作品已被翻译成34种语言，他的文章被发布在30多个国家的150多个外文新闻和政治网站上，以及100多个英文平台上。拉里·罗曼诺夫是一位退休的管理顾问和商人。他曾在国际咨询公司担任高级管理职务，并拥有一家国际进出口企业。他曾担任上海复旦大学的客座教授，为高级EMBA课程讲授国际事务案例研究。罗曼诺夫先生现居上海，目前正在撰写一系列共十本书，总体上涉及中国与西方。他是辛西娅·麦金尼新选集《当中国打喷嚏》（第2章——与恶魔打交道）的特约作者之一。

His full archive can be seen at

他的全部档案可以在以下网址查看：

https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/  + https://www.moonofshanghai.com/

He can be contacted at:

他的全部档案可以在以下网址查看：

2186604556@qq.com

*

NOTES – Part 20

注释——第20部分

[1] Engineer testimony: A video of Tesla promoting autonomous driving is fake[1] 工程师证言：特斯拉宣传自动驾驶的视频是假的

https://baike.baidu.com/reference/62591749/533aYdO6cr3_z3kATKDZz6ihMy6SMImutrLWUbFzzqIPmGapB5nyTcYm6NIv_-diBkXIvtdsZcEGsu2-WxIZgaFPM6pkAOFNn3f5UjPCzLk

[2] IROBOT CO-FOUNDER CALLS OUT ELON MUSK’S OPTIMUS ROBOT ‘FANTASY’[2] IROBOT联合创始人批评埃隆·马斯克的OPTIMUS ROBOT“幻想”

https://www.slashgear.com/2029521/irobot-roomba-cofounder-elon-musk-tesla-optimus-robot/

[3] IROBOT CO-FOUNDER CALLS OUT ELON MUSK’S OPTIMUS ROBOT ‘FANTASY’[3] IROBOT联合创始人批评埃隆·马斯克的OPTIMUS ROBOT“幻想”

https://www.slashgear.com/2029521/irobot-roomba-cofounder-elon-musk-tesla-optimus-robot/

 [4] X-Peng’s new generation of robots take a cat step! Netizen: I suspect that there is a real person hidden in it.[4] 小鹏新一代机器人迈出了猫步！网友：我怀疑里面藏着真人。

https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_31912165

[5] IRON catwalk[5] 铁制走道

[6] A video of the demonstration; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_Ag_SgsHVg[6] 演示视频；https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_Ag_SgsHVg

[7] XPENG Cuts Open Its Lifelike IRON Robot on Stage[7] 小鹏汽车在舞台上拆解其栩栩如生的IRON机器人https://www.eweek.com/news/xpeng-iron-robot/

[8] Automaker XPENG releases new video to prove its robot ‘IRON’ is not human[8] 汽车制造商小鹏发布新视频，证明其机器人“小鹏铁军”并非人类

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202511/1347511.shtml

[9] Tesla Previews Robot with Human in Spandex Suit[9] 特斯拉预览穿着弹力服的人形机器人

https://www.autoweek.com/news/technology/a37359183/tesla-robot-human-in-spandex/

[10] Tesla’s humanoid robot is a joke, and Musk’s hype is outrageous[10] 特斯拉的人形机器人简直是个笑话，马斯克的炒作更是离谱

https://m.ithome.com/html/570639.htm

[11] Tesla humanoid robot remotely controlled exposed, Musk faces criticism [11] 特斯拉人形机器人被远程操控曝光，马斯克面临批评

https://statementdog.com/news/10103

[12] Tesla Optimus robots face suspicions of human control[12] 特斯拉Optimus机器人面临人为操控的质疑

https://news.kbs.co.kr/news/pc/view/view.do?ncd=8082379

[13] Optimus appears to be remotely controlled[13] 擎天柱似乎受到远程控制

pic.twitter.com/L89fz8cnOM

[14] Milan Kovac, Head Of Tesla Optimus Program, Departs; https://cleantechnica.com/2025/06/09/milan-kovac-head-of-tesla-optimus-program-departs/

[14] 特斯拉Optimus项目负责人米兰·科瓦奇离职；https://cleantechnica.com/2025/06/09/milan-kovac-head-of-tesla-optimus-program-departs/

[15] Abandoning motion capture and fully turning to pure visual data collection, Tesla Optimus’ latest training progress is exposed!

[15] 特斯拉Optimus放弃动作捕捉，全面转向纯视觉数据采集，最新训练进展曝光！https://app.myzaker.com/news/article.php?pk=69085c5fb15ec07899597a79&f=qqconnect

[16] Optimus picking up water bottle[16] 擎天柱拿起水瓶

https://v.douyin.com/jfZdvqq8wN0/;https://www.douyin.com/video/7580920295214709477

[17] Optimus knocked over all the bottles and fell down,[17] 擎天柱撞翻了所有的瓶子，摔倒了,

https://v.douyin.com/TesmQDQPsjk/

[18] Optimus was being teleoperated[18] 擎天柱正在被远程操控

https://v.douyin.com/u0i1xU_tqWk/

https://www.douyin.com/video/7581399670199455022

[19] Abandoning motion capture and fully turning to pure visual data collection, Tesla Optimus’ latest training progress is exposed!

[19] 特斯拉Optimus放弃动作捕捉，全面转向纯视觉数据采集，最新训练进展曝光！

https://app.myzaker.com/news/article.php?pk=69085c5fb15ec07899597a79&f=qqconnect

[20] Musk said that “robots earn $30 trillion a year” Tesla set off an AI super wave?[20] 马斯克表示“机器人每年能赚30万亿美元”，特斯拉掀起AI超级浪潮？

https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202507283469269722.html

[21] Tesla’s Optimus robot VP is leaving the company; https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/06/teslas-optimus-robot-vp-is-reportedly-leaving-the-company/

[21] 特斯拉的Optimus机器人副总裁即将离职；https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/06/teslas-optimus-robot-vp-is-reportedly-leaving-the-company/

[22] Milan Kovac ran Elon Musk’s most important project: What the departure of the Optimus head means for Tesla

[22] 米兰·科瓦奇负责埃隆·马斯克最重要的项目：Optimus主管的离职对特斯拉意味着什么

https://fortune.com/2025/06/09/milan-kovac-tesla-optimus/

[23] Tesla publicly clarified the mass production time point of OPTIMUS for the first time V3 is expected to be unveiled before Q1 2026[23] 特斯拉首次公开明确了OPTIMUS的大规模生产时间点，预计V3将在2026年第一季度前亮相

https://vip.stock.finance.sina.com.cn/q/go.php/vReport_Show/kind/lastest/rptid/815043290271/index.phtml

[24] Tesla suspended the production of humanoid robots and modified the design,[24]特斯拉暂停了人形机器人的生产，并对设计进行了修改

https://chejiahao.autohome.com.cn/info/20853171#pvareaid=6826274

[25] Tesla humanoid robot, new progress exposed![25] 特斯拉人形机器人，新进展曝光！

https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2025-11-03/4127778.html

[26] Tesla’s Optimus robot mass production suffered a setback: annual production fell far short of expectations, with only a few hundred units delivered

[26] 特斯拉的Optimus机器人量产遭遇挫折：年产量远低于预期，仅交付了几百台;https://k.sina.cn/article_1686546714_6486a91a02002z4ie.html

[27] Tesla’s Optimus Robot Project Faces Production Bottlenecks Amid Technical Challenges.[27] 特斯拉的Optimus机器人项目在技术挑战中面临生产瓶颈。

https://www.ainvest.com/news/tesla-optimus-robot-project-faces-production-bottlenecks-technical-challenges-2507/

[27] Tesla suspended robot production, a double blow of leadership turmoil[27] 特斯拉暂停机器人生产，领导层动荡带来双重打击

https://m.163.com/dy/article/K5IE7PSL0556F1QL.html

[28] Tesla suspended the production of humanoid robots and modified the design[28]特斯拉暂停了人形机器人的生产，并对设计进行了修改

https://chejiahao.autohome.com.cn/info/20853171#pvareaid=6826274

[29] Tesla AI VP Milan Kovac Resigns After 9 Years Leading FSD and Optimus Projects[29]特斯拉人工智能副总裁米兰·科瓦奇在领导全自动驾驶（FSD）和Optimus项目9年后辞职

https://gearmusk.com/2025/06/07/tesla-ai-vp-milan-kovac-resigns/

[30] Tesla Optimus robotics vice president Milan Kovac is leaving the company[30]特斯拉Optimus机器人业务副总裁米兰·科瓦奇即将离开公司

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/06/tesla-optimus-robotics-vp-is-leaving-the-company.html

[31] Tesla loses some AI staff to a new robotics startup[31] 特斯拉部分人工智能员工跳槽至一家新的机器人初创公司; https://agooka.com/news/usa/tesla-loses-some-ai-staff-to-a-new-robotics-startup/

[32] Tesla Optimus is in shambles as head of program exits, production delayed

[32] 随着项目负责人的离职，特斯拉Optimus陷入混乱，生产被推迟;https://electrek.co/2025/07/03/tesla-optimus-shambles-head-of-program-exits-production-delayed/

[33] Layoffs and production delays spell darkest hour for Tesla’s Optimus team!

[33] 裁员和生产延误预示着特斯拉Optimus团队最黑暗的时刻！

https://xie.infoq.cn/article/3b55819e034e96283e20429f5

[34] Tesla’s Optimus Robot Faces Production Setbacks: Annual Output Falls Far Short of Expectations, With Only Hundreds Delivered

[34] 特斯拉的Optimus机器人面临生产挫折：年产量远低于预期，仅交付数百台

https://tech.huanqiu.com/article/4NeJLNLYm85

[35] The Beauty and the Beast — IRON and Optimus: A Tale of Two Robots[35] 《美女与野兽》——铁皮与擎天柱：两个机器人的故事; https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/politics/22955/

[36] Optimus running, https://v.douyin.com/fYTvvzb0vcI/; https://www.douyin.com/video/7580253071712783643

[37] Three robots running; https://www.douyin.com/video/7579917368638344499

[38] Optimus and T800; https://v.douyin.com/3wEVaDz3IjA/;https://www.douyin.com/video/7580689337700928778

[38] Musk babble on robots (nobody has a useful robot)

[38] 马斯克喋喋不休地谈论机器人（没人有真正有用的机器人）

https://v.douyin.com/a9oq775TeVk/; https://www.douyin.com/video/7575010626527890730

[38a] Maximally truth-seeking; https://v.douyin.com/owrdSJRfvO8/

[38a] 最大限度地追求真理；https://v.douyin.com/owrdSJRfvO8/

[39] Debunking Elon Musk – Part 12 — xAI and Grok; https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/politics/21776/

[39] 揭秘埃隆·马斯克——第12部分——xAI与Grok；https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/politics/21776/

[40] Debunking Elon Musk – Part 18 — Fraud Update – xAI and Grok; https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/politics/22101/

[40] 揭穿埃隆·马斯克——第18部分——欺诈更新——xAI和Grok；https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/politics/22101/

[41] Tesla’s AI director is reported to have launched an internal mobilization: next year will be the “most difficult year of their lives” 据报道，特斯拉的人工智能主管已发起内部动员：明年将是“他们人生中最艰难的一年”

https://baike.baidu.com/reference/62591749/533aYdO6cr3_z3kATPXdzvn5YS7NZNr66-DXV7FzzqIP0XOpSo_sUIEz6NYwsPVmHQ_e_pttbZkGyeGuB0pN6v8WduUzRbwhmX78WzvFzbvwuI9zl4MV-tEW

[42] Ashok Eluswamy[42] 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米

https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E9%98%BF%E8%82%96%E5%85%8B%C2%B7%E5%9F%83%E5%8D%A2%E6%96%AF%E7%93%A6%E7%B1%B3/62591749

[43] Abandoning motion capture and fully turning to pure visual data collection, Tesla Optimus’ latest training progress is exposed!

[43] 特斯拉Optimus放弃动作捕捉，全面转向纯视觉数据采集，最新训练进展曝光！

https://app.myzaker.com/news/article.php?pk=69085c5fb15ec07899597a79&f=qqconnect

[44] Tesla’s AI head warns that 2026 will face the biggest challenge

[44] 特斯拉人工智能负责人警告称，2026年将面临最大挑战

https://ai.zol.com.cn/1080/10809664.html

[45] Abandoning motion capture and fully turning to pure visual data collection, Tesla Optimus’ latest training progress is exposed!

[45] 特斯拉Optimus放弃动作捕捉，全面转向纯视觉数据采集，最新训练进展曝光！

https://app.myzaker.com/news/article.php?pk=69085c5fb15ec07899597a79&f=qqconnect

[46] Tesla and technology executives debate the path of autonomous driving technology: pure vision VS multi-sensor fusion

[46] 特斯拉与科技行业高管就自动驾驶技术的发展路径展开辩论：纯视觉方案VS多传感器融合方案

https://news.zol.com.cn/1037/10370329.html

[47] The Beauty and the Beast — IRON and Optimus: A Tale of Two Robots

[47] 美女与野兽 — 铁皮与擎天柱：两个机器人的故事; https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/politics/22955/

[48] Hardcore showdown: X-Peng IRON and Tesla Optimus, a technical route game on the humanoid robot track

[48] 硬核对决：小鹏 G 款与特斯拉 Optimus，人形机器人赛道上的技术路线之争

https://blog.csdn.net/weixin_73527660/article/details/154578477

[49] Hardcore showdown: Xpeng IRON and Tesla Optimus, a technical route game on the humanoid robot track

[49] 硬核对决：小鹏 G3 与特斯拉 Optimus，人形机器人赛道上的技术路线博弈

https://blog.csdn.net/weixin_73527660/article/details/154578477

[50] 2025 Robot First Year: X-peng IRON/Yushu H2/Optimus Prime/1X-Neo software and hardware structure analysis

[50] 2025年机器人元年：小鹏G3/蔚来ES8/擎天柱/1X-Neo软件与硬件结构分析

https://blog.csdn.net/VBsemi/article/details/154837120

[51] Hardcore showdown: X-peng IRON and Tesla Optimus, a technical route game on the humanoid robot track

[51] 硬核对决：小鹏 G 款与特斯拉 Optimus，人形机器人赛道上的技术路线之争

https://blog.csdn.net/weixin_73527660/article/details/154578477

[52] X-peng Motors unveils AI humanoid robot Iron, challenging Tesla’s Optimus

[52] 小鹏汽车推出人工智能人形机器人Iron，挑战特斯拉的Optimus

https://m.huanqiu.com/article/4K970yDIWco

[53] Tesla’s humanoid robots aren’t the right fit for factories, says former Optimus lead

[53] 前Optimus负责人表示，特斯拉的人形机器人并不适合工厂

https://www.techspot.com/news/108056-tesla-humanoid-robots-arent-right-fit-factories-former.html

[54] Tesla suspended the production of humanoid robots and modified the design

[54] 特斯拉暂停了人形机器人的生产，并对设计进行了修改

https://chejiahao.autohome.com.cn/info/20853171#pvareaid=6826274

[55] Rolls-Royce uses engine performance data to improve service

[55] 劳斯莱斯利用发动机性能数据来改进服务

https://www.qoco.aero/case-studies/case-study-rolls-royce-uses-engine-performance-data-to-improve-service

[56] Intelligent Engine Health Monitoring[56] 智能发动机健康监测

https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/our-stories/discover/2019/intelligent-engine-health-monitoring.aspx

[57] The power of engine health information[57] 发动机健康信息的作用

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2024-04-26/power-engine-health-information

[58] Siri “unintentionally” recorded private convos; Apple agrees to pay $95M[58] Siri“无意中”录制私人对话；苹果同意支付9500万美元

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/01/apple-agrees-to-pay-95m-delete-private-conversations-siri-recorded/

[59] IDF bans Android phones for senior officers, iPhones now mandatory, Army Radio reports

[59] 据陆军电台报道，以色列国防军禁止高级军官使用安卓手机，现强制要求使用iPhone

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-876327

[60] Here Are The Facts About The Kill Switch Mandate For Cars That’s Already Passed[60] 以下是已通过的汽车熄火开关要求的相关事实

https://www.carscoops.com/2023/12/here-are-the-facts-about-the-kill-switch-mandate-for-cars-thats-already-passed/

[61] Are We Really Fine With Government Required Driver Monitoring And Remote Kill Switches?

[61] 我们真的能接受政府强制的驾驶员监控和远程熄火开关吗？

https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/cars/news-blog/are-we-really-fine-with-government-required-driver-monitoring-and-remote-kill-44507698

[62] Your Car Is Watching You

[62] 你的车在监视你

https://www.countere.com/home/section-24220-the-future-of-cars-remote-kill-switch

[63] Subaru Flaw Allowed Remote Control of Millions of Cars in the US

[63] 斯巴鲁漏洞导致美国数百万辆汽车可被远程控制

https://cyberinsider.com/subaru-flaw-allowed-remote-control-of-millions-of-cars-in-the-us/

[64] Tesla owners will be able to remotely control their car through their phones ‘like RC cars’ within ~6 weeks, says Elon Musk

[64] 埃隆·马斯克表示，特斯拉车主将在大约6周内能够通过手机远程控制他们的汽车，就像控制遥控车一样

https://electrek.co/2018/11/01/tesla-remotely-control-car-phones-like-rc-cars-elon-musk/

[65] The national standard GB/T 45502-2025 “General Requirements for Information Security of Service Robots” led by China Evaluation is about to be implemented, and CCID robot certification escorts product safety

由中国评估主导的国家标准GB/T 45502-2025《服务机器人信息安全通用要求》即将实施，而赛迪机器人认证则为产品安全保驾护航

https://cstc.org.cn/info/1796/256391.htm

[66] General requirements for information security of service robots

[66] 服务机器人信息安全通用要求

https://webstore.spc.net.cn/bwonline/9e2b74f7423f548d405996e62937064a.html

[67] General requirements for information security of service robots

[67] 服务机器人信息安全通用要求http://www1.csres.com/detail/425201.html

[68] Debunking Elon Musk – Part 13 — Neuralink, DOGE, Twitter

[68] 揭秘埃隆·马斯克——第13部分——Neuralink、狗狗币、推特

https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/politics/21803/

[69] Why Elon Musk, the bully, is seen by many, including liberals, as a hero[69] 为什么包括自由派在内的许多人将恶霸埃隆·马斯克视为英雄

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-12-04/elon-musk-racism-x-bully-savior-culture

[70] Elon Musk Promises ‘Major Purge’ To Wipe Off Overwhelming Explosion Of Adult Content On X

[70] 伊隆·马斯克承诺进行“大清洗”，以清除X平台上泛滥的成人内容

https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38104457/elon-musk-promises-major-purge-to-wipe-off-overwhelming-explosion-of-adult-content-on-x?itm_source=parsely-api

[71] Elon Musk’s X Is Drowning In Adult Content[71]埃隆·马斯克的X公司正被成人内容淹没

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/elon-musks-x-is-drowning-in-adult-content-so-much-that-you-cant-scroll-it-in-public/ar-BB1kYA8q

[72] X is testing ‘adult content’ communities, screenshots suggest

[72] 截图显示，X正在测试“成人内容”社区https://www.siliconrepublic.com/business/x-adult-content-communities-screenshots-twitter

[73] Paris mayor quits X, calling social media platform a ‘vast global sewer’[73] 巴黎市长退出X，称该社交媒体平台为“巨大的全球污水沟”

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20231128-paris-mayor-quits-x-calling-social-media-platform-a-vast-global-sewer

[74] Grok App Adds AI Image and Video Generator With NSFW ‘Spicy’ Mode

[74] Grok App推出AI图像和视频生成器，附带NSFW“辣眼”模式

https://www.pcmag.com/news/grok-app-adds-ai-image-and-video-generator-with-nsfw-spicy-mode

[75] Debunking Elon Musk – Part 2. Character Summary of a Delusional Sociopath

[75] 揭秘埃隆·马斯克——第二部分。妄想型反社会人格者的性格概述

https://www.bluemoonofshanghai.com/politics/20682/

[76] Tesla Optimus humanoid robot will be able to thread a needle in a year[76] 特斯拉Optimus人形机器人一年内将能穿针引线

https://www.teslaoracle.com/2023/12/22/tesla-optimus-humanoid-robot-will-be-able-to-thread-a-needle-in-a-year-says-elon-musk/

[77] Milan Kovac, Head Of Tesla Optimus Program, Departs[77] 特斯拉Optimus项目负责人米兰·科瓦奇离职

https://cleantechnica.com/2025/06/09/milan-kovac-head-of-tesla-optimus-program-departs/

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